Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210452 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND IMPACT THE KAMA TERMINAL. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE KDHT TERMINAL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT
KAMA OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR. POSSIBLE FOR
FREEZING FOG AT KAMA AS WELL OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR OR VLIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGUY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ANTICIPATED FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MID MORNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE KAMA
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR. POSSIBLE
FOR FZFG OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH LIFR
OR EVEN VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE KAMA TERMINAL MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT
KGUY/KDHT...LIKELY KEEPING ANY FOG EAST OF THE TERMINALS. POSSIBLE
FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT KGUY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MVFR
VISBYS AT KGUY FROM THE LIGHT FOG.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR NEAR THE SFC WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
THE GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES... BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS JUNCTURE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT IF
WARRANTED.

FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FCST TO BURN OFF SUN MORNING. WARMER
TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED FAST
MOVG VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL TIMING DURG THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...PRECIP THREAT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OK PNHDL AND NWRN TX PNHDL MONDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
SLGT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED ACROSS OK PNHDL AND NWRN TX PNHDL ON
MONDAY. CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST WRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF
TX PNHDL AND LOWEST FAR NERN ZONES. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVG NATURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ITSELF...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ONE INCH AT ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER IS FCST LATE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MINOR WARMING TREND WED AND THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO POPS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05




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