Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200905
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS
TRANSLATING EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MONSOON
MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ABOARD
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NM WAS MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WHICH WERE HELPING TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 4 AM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST
TODAY...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND WESTERN TROUGH. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES...SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE TO BRING IN SOME
CONVECTION OFF THE NM HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER BENEATH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 600-700MB. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
WARM...BREEZY DAY AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TO 15-25 MPH EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGH...HELPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MEAN TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST. RESULTANT
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO
DAILY AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A DECENT LEE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAY ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE EMBEDDED CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS
EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP
TOWARD SATURDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY GET IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK
LIKE A BETTER FRONTAL PUSH MAY COME AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
/NEXT WEDNESDAY/ AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAY GET ITS FINAL PUSH EASTWARD.
HAVE EXTENDED PRECIP CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS ALONG
WITH SOME LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND GLANCING UPPER DYNAMICS.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...NO ELEVATED
OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND
UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                93  68  94  68  92 /  10  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  99  71 101  72  99 /   5  10  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  97  72  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              97  69  97  68  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  93  68  94  67  92 /  10  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               95  70  96  70  95 /   5  10  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 95  65  95  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  98  69  99  70  96 /  10  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                93  67  93  66  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                96  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   93  69  94  70  94 /   5  10  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                94  71  96  72  95 /   0  10  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              97  71  97  72  98 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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