Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 192121
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  51  29  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  27  52  30  55  32 /   0   0   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              24  52  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  32  50  31  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              26  53  25  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  31  52  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               31  48  33  56  33 /   5   5   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  21  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  25  54  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                30  53  27  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                33  47  34  55  36 /   5   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   32  47  31  52  33 /   5   0   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                37  46  35  52  35 /   5   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              37  45  36  53  36 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17





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