Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172107
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
307 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains largely unchanged.  No precipitation expected
for the next seven days.  Ongoing critical fire weather
conditions should end early this evening.

Deep mixing has occurred today in spite of abundance of cirrus
clouds.  Dry west winds with surface trof will diminish
temporarily this evening, but then ramp up again with the approach
and passage of a cold front.  Cold front expected to pass through
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles between 11 PM tonight and 4 AM
Saturday.  Winds may briefly reach 35 MPH with frontal passage,
particularly in northeast and east parts of the forecast area as a
sharp shortwave trof and associated stronger winds move through
the area.  Do not expect duration of 35 MPH winds to be great
enough to issue a wind advisory for Saturday.  Cold air advection
will hold Saturday high temperatures below normal.  Saturday
night will be cold with lows below freezing area-wide.

Following passage of early Saturday shortwave trof, light to
moderate northwest flow aloft resumes.  Temperatures on Sunday
rise to be close be near-normal.  Southwest winds on Monday bring
highs to around 10 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.  Another cold
front Monday night results in highs Tuesday and Wednesday near
normal.  Thanksgiving Day and Friday expected to be warm with
highs about 10 degrees above climo.  03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry west and southwest winds will diminish a bit this evening.
Critical and elevated fire weather conditions should end around 6
PM this evening as relative humidity rises above thresholds.
Winds will abruptly shift to the northwest late tonight as a cold
front arrives.  The cold front is expected to pass through
northwest sections before midnight, and to clear the southeast
Texas Panhandle by 4 AM Saturday.  Strong northwest and north
winds early Friday will diminish during the afternoon. Light winds
are expected Saturday night, with dry southwest winds increasing
again on Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on
Sunday across parts of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
as relative humidity values drop to around or slightly below 20
percent as southwest winds resume. Southwest winds on Monday are
not expected to be strong.  A cold front Monday night will result
in strong north winds on Tuesday, but relative humidities are
expected to remain well above 20 percent.  Light to moderate
southwest winds return on Wednesday.  No elevated or critical
fire weather conditions are expected Monday through Friday.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                43  54  28  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  39  54  25  61  32 /   0   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              36  49  27  59  31 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  46  56  31  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              42  56  28  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  44  54  27  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               47  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 41  54  25  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  39  53  27  61  31 /   5   5   0   0   0
Hereford TX                45  55  27  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  55  25  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   44  55  28  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                47  57  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              49  59  31  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$

29/03



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