Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$






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