Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 060415 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING. HAVE WIND SHIFT AND MENTION OF
TSRA STARTING AT 15Z FOR KGUY AND KDHT...AND STARTING AT 22Z FOR
KAMA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TAPER OFF AT KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. LOW
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AFTER TSRA ENDS.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z BEFORE SPEEDS BECOMING MOSTLY STEADY
AROUND 15 KTS. THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCES
TO EACH SITE. CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT MAKING IT TO KDHT AND KGUY BY
ABOUT 14Z MONDAY...AND TO KAMA JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...SO ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA IMPACTS AT KDHT AND KGUY. AT KAMA...BELIEVE
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z...THOUGH STORMS MAY PUSH
THROUGH QUICKLY. THEREFORE ONLY VCTS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE LOOKING UP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON UP INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG FOR TIME OF YEAR...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY THE STABLE AIR MASS THAT SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS PUTS THE
PANHANDLES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/08




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