Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261041 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
541 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE WEST. LOWS OVERNIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS REMAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW...NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS THE
GREATER PART OF THE AREA BY NOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN
AND EXIT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT THESE CHANCES ARE LOW.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER, BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. IN THIS AREA WE COULD SEE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH
THE AXIS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A SHOWER TO TWO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
EITHER SUNDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14


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