Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151700 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL DECREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING
AND BACK SOME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES BEFORE 18Z ON WEDNESDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CANCELLED HARD FREEZE WARNING EARLY AS TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE
WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE TODAY
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN S TO SW WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME DURING THE EVENING. JUST A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THRU 12Z WED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING
AND THE ONGOING HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS VALID ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL 10 AM. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL EXIT THE AREA
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
BACK INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS NEARBY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND
THIS IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT TO OR BELOW FREEZING.

LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE
AREA THE OTHER DAY. NONETHELESS THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 50S TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY THE EVENING. BEST UPPER LIFT WILL BE OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. HAVE HELD OFF ON INSERTING A
PRECIP MENTION THEN SINCE THIS IS QUITE A WAYS OUT IN TIME AND THAT
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A PERSISTENT DROUGHT. ALSO COMPLICATING THE WX
PICTURE IS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WHICH
MAY SUPPRESS ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH. RECENT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING
ABOVE 20 PERCENT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





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