000
FXUS64 KAMA 221947
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
247 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warmer and dry conditions are favored today through Tuesday night
for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy south to southwest
winds will continue this evening into the overnight hours before a
cold front switches the winds to out of the north. Temperatures
will drop a bit on Tuesday behind the front. Cannot completely
rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening or night,
but the potential is low at this time.

The breezy southwest winds are aiding in ushering in WAA to the
region this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s
across the region. For locations across the north, highs may reach
the lower 80s by late this afternoon. The breezy winds will
continue into the overnight hours tonight, albeit, not as strong
as they are this afternoon. The breezy winds will keep lows on the
warmer side when compared to last weekend.

By sunrise on Tuesday, a cold front should be moving in across the
northern Panhandles and will switch winds to out of the north.
Latest model guidance has the front pushing through the entire
area by early afternoon on Tuesday. The only exception may be the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle. However, the models that are
hinting at this potential appear to be outliers and historically
these fronts will just keep on going so am not leaning too much on
that potential scenario. Some mid to low level moisture may return
during the overnight hours and some showers or storms may form
across portions of the eastern Panhandles. Confidence in this is
low at this time giving model variability, but will maintain NBM
PoPs for now as enough ensembles are suggesting some precipitation
may form. Currently not anticipating any severe weather should any
storms form in our area, but this potential will need to be
monitored as there are some models that have modest elevated CAPE
on Tuesday night.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Wednesday through this weekend will be fairly active for the
Southern High Plains. The potential is there for multiple days of
elevated to critical fire weather and severe thunderstorms. The
more impactful days look to be the potential severe thunderstorm
days which are Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures during the long
term are forecast to mainly be in the 70s to 80s.

Some showers and thunderstorms may be lingering across portions of
the Panhandles on Wednesday. Forecast soundings do not have the
moisture depth throughout the column being all that impressive, so
light precipitation would be expected if any does form across the
CWA. The temperatures for Wednesday are very much up in question.
With the surge in low level moisture expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday, low clouds may linger for portions of the Panhandles
through the afternoon hours if not all day for locations in the
east. If that occurs, temperatures will struggle to warm up and
some locations may stay in the 50s for high temperatures. Given
the high uncertainty, have kept with the NBM blended highs for
now, but definitely have concerns that the temperatures may be too
much on the warm side. With that being said, am not anticipating
any severe thunderstorms on Wednesday at this time.

For Thursday, the next upper level wave begins to move towards the
High Plains. With south to southeasterly winds on Wednesday night
into Thursday, moisture will continue to move up into the
Panhandles. This will prime the atmosphere for thunderstorm
development during the afternoon hours. Drier air should move in
given west downslope winds during the afternoon hours which should
create a dryline across the Panhandles. The placement of the
dryline will be key for which areas experience elevated to
critical fire weather and the severe thunderstorm threat. Details
are still very much up in the air at this point, but if severe
storms do form, they could pose a threat for all hazards (large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out). There is
high confidence (around 80 percent) that the dryline will stay
somewhere across the CWA, just exactly where is the question.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely for the western stack
of counties in the CWA as the dryline only has a less than 10
percent chance of staying that far west. Breezy to gusty west
winds are forecast for this area and relative humidity values
could drop into the single digits on Thursday afternoon.

The active weather pattern will continue Friday through this
upcoming weekend for the region. West downslope winds are likely
as the main upper level system moves off towards the Northern
Plains. The drier airmass will remain in place on Friday with the
breezy to gusty winds and elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will once again be possible across the area. Another
H500 low pressure system is forecast to move towards the area on
Saturday. Enough just in time moisture may return to the area on
Saturday to generate showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms could become severe. There is tremendous uncertainty
whether or not storms will form given that moisture will need to
get back to the higher elevations here just in time before the
lift provided by the low pressure system moves across.
Temperatures during this time period will mainly be in the 70s to
80s from Friday through next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours at all sites.
Winds out of the southwest will continue through 00z with gusts of
30 to 35 kts. Winds will slow down a bit overnight but occasional
gusts may occur. A cold front will move across the area near or
after 12z and winds will switch to out of the north behind the
front. Gusts behind the front could be upwards of 25 to 30 kts.
Mostly clear skies are forecast with this TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  82  50  71 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  52  76  47  67 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              47  73  44  71 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                  57  83  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              52  83  49  75 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  52  84  50  74 /   0  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               52  84  53  70 /   0  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 47  78  44  71 /   0   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  50  75  45  68 /   0   0  20  10
Hereford TX                51  87  49  76 /   0  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                54  79  50  67 /   0   0  30  20
Pampa TX                   55  80  50  68 /   0   0  20  20
Shamrock TX                50  84  53  69 /   0  10  20  30
Wellington TX              50  85  53  72 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05