Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05






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