Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 272321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the TAF period.
Possible shower or isolated thunderstorm through 03z, but will
amend the TAFS if the threat occurs. Wind gusts of near 40-50kts
through 03z can`t be ruled out as we have a very dry sub-cloud
layer. Winds should then become less than 12kt for the remainder
of the night. During the late morning hours tomorrow, we expect to
see winds increase above 15kt once again. Scattered to broken
cloud decks around 10kft are expected to move in for the last 6
hours of the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will push across the Panhandles tonight before
stalling south of the forecast area. The frontal boundary is then
forecast to lift northward Friday and Friday night as a warm front
before a secondary surge of even much colder air drives the front
south again. Vigorous closed upper low will develop over the Great
Basin region Friday and then digs south and east near the Four
Corners region by late Friday and then into central and southeast
New Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The upper low is then
expected to lift northeast across the southern Texas Panhandle
Saturday night and Sunday. Convection will diminish this evening
and tonight before developing once again Friday afternoon and
Friday night. As 850 mb temps fall to at or below freezing in the
colder sector of the upper low Saturday and early Sunday, wintry
precipitation is expected to spread northwest to southeast across
much of the northwest half or two-thirds of the forecast area.

Some rain and snow mix or snow in the higher elevations of the
western Oklahoma Panhandle will be possible mainly late Friday
night into Saturday morning, however best chances are expected
Saturday night and early Sunday. Lots of uncertainties on timing
and track of the upper low resulting in low confidence on
snowfall accumulations and locations impacted. Feel best chances
will mainly be across the northern and western portions of the
Texas Panhandle as well as the western and possibly the central
Oklahoma Panhandle. Upper low lifts northeast across the central
Plains states by early next week as upper ridge builds across the
western states. Another northern stream shortwave trough will
track across the central Rockies by late Tuesday and approach the
Panhandles by next Wednesday. Chances for convection will increase
by the middle of next week with the approach of this upper trough
and as a backdoor cold front moves through the forecast area by
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  74  41  44  30 /  10  20  70  70  50
Beaver OK                  44  70  40  43  33 /  30  20  90  80  70
Boise City OK              39  62  33  36  27 /   5  30  70  80  70
Borger TX                  47  74  42  45  32 /  10  20  80  80  60
Boys Ranch TX              44  73  40  44  30 /   5  20  80  80  50
Canyon TX                  46  75  42  46  30 /   5  20  70  70  50
Clarendon TX               50  77  45  50  34 /  10  10  60  60  40
Dalhart TX                 42  67  38  39  29 /   5  30  70  80  60
Guymon OK                  42  68  38  41  31 /  10  20  80  80  70
Hereford TX                46  75  42  47  30 /   5  20  60  70  50
Lipscomb TX                46  73  43  46  34 /  30  10  80  80  70
Pampa TX                   46  73  40  44  31 /  10  20  80  70  60
Shamrock TX                50  77  47  51  36 /  20   5  60  50  40
Wellington TX              52  79  49  55  38 /  10   5  50  50  40
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11


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