Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 260355 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1055 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT AMA. WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WOULD STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY WITH ANY SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR UP THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL TURN MORE TO THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

INITIAL CONCERN IS PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS STRONG 3 HOUR POST-FRONTAL
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR BEHIND DEEPENING LOW NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ALSO INCLUDE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK FORCING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SIGNAL WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A BRIEF
LESS SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL PROBABLY TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY INTO MID WEEK
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT
WITH WEAK TROUGHING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE PANHANDLES SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BOTH
LOW END PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/16





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