Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291137
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING CONVECTION.
BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OPTED TO GO PREVAILING
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. FURTHER SOUTH CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH SO ADDED PROB30
FOR KAMA THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 15KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MCS THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING PRECIP TO MOST OF THE
OK AND TX PANHANDLES HAS MOVED INTO KS.  BETWEEN THE PRECIP FROM
THIS AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WERE
AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.  THE FRONT ALSO
SWUNG THE WINDS AROUND SO THAT THEY ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH AND
THEY WILL BE STAY NORTHEASTERLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND TURN INTO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS SLIDING BACK TO THE WEST.  BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THUS BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE
PANHANDLES.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TRANSITION PERIOD AND THUS BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH MOST PLACES NOT REACHING 90 DEGREES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
STORMS OVER THE PERIOD.  CONCERNS OVER THE ALREADY FULL PLAYA LAKES
WILL MEAN CAREFUL WATCHING OF WHERE RAIN FALLS.  SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

MB

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
NW FLOW ALOFT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. HAVE INCLUDED SLGT
CHC POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD NOT ARGUE AGAINST THIS SCENARIO
GIVEN THE PROGGED UA PATTERN.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02





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