Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151904
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
204 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convective initiation is underway across the southern Texas
Panhandle. Latest visible imagery (and looking out the window)
shows a rapidly developing CU field with some decent vertical
growth. LAPS CAPE analysis shows 3000-3500 J/kg for these
developing storms to work with while deep layer shear being fairly
limited of 20-25kt. This continues to support the advertised
threats of large hail being the primary hazard with severe storms
today. There is also a damaging wind threat due to elevated cloud
bases and forecast inverted-v soundings. Once storms develop, we
do expect storms to be of the discrete variety and will quickly
move across the eastern Panhandles. CAMs show that convection
could exit the area as early at 7PM but some linger things until
9/10PM. The tornado threat is extremely low due to high cloud
bases and weak low level shear.

Friday and Saturday remain the warmest days of the week with
triple digits likely. With this forecast package, we will issue
heat advisories for both days. Friday will be limited to the
southwestern Texas Panhandle and the Palo Duro Canyon for high
temperatures of 105. On Saturday, a greater portion of the area
will be under a heat advisory as highs reach into the 105 to 110
degree range. These hot temperatures wont last long as we will see
a strong cold front sweep across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. This front will limit high temperatures to
near normal for Sunday (80s).

As we move into next week we will see northwest flow aloft which
will keep the chance for off and on storms in the forecast. Have
kept chances low for now as it will depend on all the factors to
line up for storms to form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67 100  67 105  63 /   5   5   0   5   5
Beaver OK                  68 101  67 104  65 /  10   5   0   5   5
Boise City OK              61  98  61  99  60 /   0   0   0   5   5
Borger TX                  69 102  69 106  68 /  10   5   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              65 105  65 108  65 /   5   0   0   5   5
Canyon TX                  66 102  65 105  62 /   5   5   0   5   5
Clarendon TX               68 100  67 104  66 /  20   5   0   5   5
Dalhart TX                 60 102  61 104  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
Guymon OK                  65 101  67 104  64 /   5   0   0   5   5
Hereford TX                66 105  65 106  62 /   5   0   0   5   5
Lipscomb TX                68  99  68 103  66 /  20  10   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   68  99  67 104  65 /  10   5   0   5   5
Shamrock TX                70 100  70 103  68 /  30  10   0   5   5
Wellington TX              70 102  72 105  71 /  30  10   0   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

     Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Randall.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Texas.


&&

$$

24/14



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