Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251730
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...MAINLY
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WILL BE
THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS
MORNING FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND DEVELOP CLOSED LOWS THAT MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS SORT
OF MESSY PATTERN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE WEEKEND.

THROUGH THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER
SOUTHERN CO/KS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND PUSH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
TODAY...AND 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DRYLINE
WILL MIX WELL EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS STEADY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN BY
FRIDAY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN /TO SOME EXTENT/ WANT TO
TAKE THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION...PLACING THE PANHANDLES IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN HOWEVER...KEEP THE UPPER LOW ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST
AS EASTERN COLORADO AS IT SLIDES PAST US ON FRIDAY. THAT SOLUTION
WOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
BENEATH THE DRY SLOT ON THESE DAYS...AND THUS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE MIDDLE FOR THIS FORECAST AND KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF TX
PANHANDLE. FINALLY MODELS REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
BY SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRYING TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
FOLLOWING RECENT RAIN EVENTS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...FINE GRASSY FUELS QUICKLY GREENED UP AND HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DRY OUT TO CRITICAL LEVELS. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND SPEED MAY BE MET TODAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DESPITE WHAT
RH AND WIND WOULD INDICATE. ERC VALUES AT LOCAL RAWS SITES HAD ONLY
CLIMBED BACK TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR
APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER AND RH LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY...AND WE MAY RE- EVALUATE NEED FOR RED FLAG PRODUCTS BEFORE
TUESDAY IF FUELS SEEM TO BE RESPONDING QUICKLY TO THE CURRENT DRY
WEATHER.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                85  52  77  45  75 /   0   0   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  83  53  81  45  73 /   0   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              80  45  71  40  68 /   0   5   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  86  56  79  49  75 /   0   0   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              86  52  77  45  76 /   0   0   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  86  51  78  44  76 /   0   0   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               87  56  82  48  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 82  47  73  41  71 /   0   0   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  83  50  76  45  71 /   0   5   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                85  51  77  43  75 /   0   0   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                84  56  83  47  75 /   0   5   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   85  55  79  47  74 /   0   0   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                88  57  85  49  79 /   0   0  10   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              91  58  87  50  82 /   0   0  10   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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