Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040918
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
318 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Warming temperatures during the early portion of the forecast only to
be replaced by some of the coldest conditions of the season around
midweek.

We will see temperatures return to the 40s and 50s as the upper
trough moves east of the Panhandles later this morning. We reach the
warming peak on Monday as 850mb temperatures of 13C to 14C move into
the Panhandles. These warmer temperatures aloft combined with
southwesterly winds should help push our high temperatures into the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, we will get our first
taste of the colder conditions to come as a cold front slides
southwards across the Panhandles. The front is expected to reach the
southern Texas Panhandle by sunrise Tuesday. While surface winds are
expected to shift from a northerly to a northeasterly direction as
the day progresses, our high temperatures will only reach the upper
30s to mid 40s. There remains a bit of discrepancy in the medium
range models as to the timing of the arctic surge. The fastest
solution (the GFS) has the arctic air in the Oklahoma Panhandle by
sunrise Wednesday where as the slower ECMWF/CMC doesn`t bring the
colder air into the Panhandles until the afternoon. Have moderated
high temperatures slightly to account for the slower solutions but
our high temperatures on Wednesday still range from the upper 20s
across the Oklahoma Panhandle to the upper 30s for the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle (basically south of I-40).

With the arctic air firmly in place Wednesday night, we will see our
low temperatures drop into the teens and single digits. These low
temperatures and light winds will likely result in wind chill values
in the single digits and even negative values early Thursday morning.
The Oklahoma Panhandle will have the highest chance to see wind chill
values around -5 degrees, and if our winds can remain 10 mph or
greater for that time period then a Wind Chill Advisory may be
needed.

Now before I get to far in the forecast, lets jump back to Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the arctic surge approaches and mention precip
chances. Forecast models have continued to show the potential for the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle to see a round of snow, but has
trended drier over the past 24 hours. There is the question of
available moisture and position of the upper jet. The GFS/NAM are
the most generous with precip chances and areal coverage where as the
ECMWF/CMC as much drier. The better precip chances presented in the
GFS/NAM likely has more to do with a more favorable jet position to
the north and east of the Panhandles where as the ECMWF/CMC have the
jet more over the Panhandles. As of right now, have kept mention of
snow in the forecast but have kept storm total amounts around one
half inch or less. Expect adjustments to this portion of the
forecast over the coming days.

The arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the Panhandles
causing Thursday`s high temperatures to hover around the freezing
mark with overnight lows dropping into the teens. Weak upper ridging
builds into the Panhandles for Friday which will allow our
temperatures to recover to the 40s area wide. Looking towards next
weekend, we could see another cold front drop across the Panhandles
but the post-frontal airmass as of right now doesn`t appear to be
nearly as cold as the midweek one.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  30  60  28  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  31  57  24  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              49  30  60  21  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  52  32  60  31  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              50  29  62  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  29  61  27  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  31  57  31  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 49  26  62  25  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  52  29  59  25  39 /   0   0   0   0   5
Hereford TX                50  28  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  31  56  29  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
Pampa TX                   52  31  58  28  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                54  32  56  31  45 /   0   0   5   0   0
Wellington TX              55  34  56  33  46 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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