Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

18Z TAF Cycle

An upper high will allow for VFR conditions at all three TAF sites
through 18Z Thursday. A southerly component to the winds will prevail
at speeds of 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts through about 02Z
Thursday...then 5 to 15 knots or 10 to 20 knots after 02Z Thursday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

Southerly winds will be occasionally gusty today and then they will
decrease to around 10 knots and back some by this afternoon at AMA
and by this evening at DHT and GUY. Skies should remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

No significant changes were needed to the forecast. A 598 dm 500 mb
high remains positioned just east of us over central Oklahoma and
will move very little through Friday. This will ensure continued dry
conditions with little change in temperatures. Weak persistent lee
troughing will result in a surface pressure gradient supportive of
southerly flow with little downslope component. This should limit
temperatures from rising to levels experienced last week despite
around 6 dm anomalies at 500 mb continuing through the end of the

Today and Thursday, subtle waves traversing the western and northern
periphery of the upper high along with terrain processes should
result in diurnal convection to our west. Aside from some cloud
debris reaching the northwest portion of the area potentially, no
impact to our area is expected. Subsidence is evident in forecast
soundings which should preclude any isolated convection from
developing in our area.

By Friday, mean ridging elongates to the west with some
deamplification on its east end and slight veering/strengthening of
mean flow over our area. This should support an increase in diurnal
convection further east along the Raton Mesa that could drift into
the western Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle late
afternoon and evening both Friday and Saturday. A continued slow
fall in mid-level heights is expected through the weekend into early
next week with increasingly perturbed westerlies across the central
and northern CONUS during this period. One of the more pronounced
waves that passes to our north Sunday may be enough to force a weak
cold front south into the area Sunday leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and perhaps greater coverage of convection. Kept low
probabilities of precipitation into mid week as riding amplifies to
our west and flow becomes more northwesterly per consensus of medium
range deterministic and ensemble guidance. This will mean possible
weak perturbations/mountain convection could impact at least the
northern portions of the area as often occurs in that pattern.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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