Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Winds will be a little breezy through about 00Z in the
10-15kt range with gusts up to 25 kts. KAMA has the potential for
LLWS tonight. There is a 40kt jet about 800ft AGL out of the
southwest with surface winds around 10kts. This has been added
from 09-15Z. Low level winds will also be at KGUY and DHT, but the
jet will not be as strong, and the winds will only be about 15 to
20 kts different than the surface winds, therefore no LLWS has
been noted for these sites.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cool surface ridge over the forecast area this morning will
shift south and east today as surface low pressure develops to the
lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
Downsloping southwesterly surface winds today through Wednesday
will allow for a warming trend while an upper ridge over the
southwestern states provides subsidence through the middle of the
week. Generally clear skies and dry conditions will prevail across
the forecast area through mid week. A surface trough will push
into the Panhandles Wednesday through Thursday before
reestablishing itself across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico again Friday.

A cold front will then push across the Panhandles by late
Saturday and Saturday evening. Chances for convection can be
expected Saturday and Saturday night along and ahead of the cold
front. A northern stream upper trough will track south and east
across the Rockies Friday night and approach the Panhandles
Saturday and Saturday night. The upper trough should push through
the forecast area by 12Z Sunday as the cold front surges south and
east away from the Panhandles. Cooler but drier conditions
expected late in the weekend and early next week as an upper high
builds over the southwestern states.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  44  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  73  44  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              74  43  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  73  46  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              74  43  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  71  43  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               71  44  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 73  40  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  75  42  78  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                71  42  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                73  45  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   69  45  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                71  43  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              73  44  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11


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