Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS64 KAMA 190427
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1027 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs:

There is a change from the previous set of TAFs. I went ahead and
inserted MVFR conditions into the prevailing TAF period. Confidence
has increase we will have a deck of broken clouds around 1000 feet
and reduced visibilities due to fog through the morning hours. This
was just mentioned in the previous discussion, but for planning
purposes MVFR conditions need to be inserted since confidence has
increased. We have higher dewpoints advecting in which will
ultimated increase relative humidity. The low clouds and reduced
visibilities should stick around through late morning. Otherwise, we
have a breezy Sunday ahead with winds predominantly from the south.

Guerrero

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low currently seen on WV imagery across NRN Baja will split
into two pieces of energy as it approaches wrn Texas. The southern
piece will close off into once again across S TX. The northern
piece will move NW across wrn zones as an open s/wv that will be absorbed
into a northern S/WV which will be moving across the NRN rockies
into the NRN plains. This S/WV will provide large scale lift to
the region Sun Aft and evening. Low levels will moisten rapidly in
advance of this system overnight but will be confined below a low
based inversion. This will likely produce low stratus tonight and
even some advection fog with the help of upslope SE flow. If
appears this inversion will lift some but will continue to trap
the moisture in the 2000-3000 feet of the atmosphere esp across
the east. Believe this will strongly limit heating and entire
area could remain capped with little chc of seeing sfc based
convection. Further west the inversion is weaker with a little
less cin, but moisture is very limited with pws well below 1". The
TTU wrf shows a very thin line of convection developing across
the far west where cin is less and moves the line from SW to NE
across the region. Other CAMs are less excited about this
occurring. Think more significant TSTMs will occur SE of the
region, but will continue with 20-35 pops (highest east) out of
respect for dynamic lift produced by the s/wv.

Drier air will move into the area behind a trough by Monday and
there will be a weak and short lived fropa behind that. SW low
flow and mid level ridging will provide much warmer temps
Wednesday with highs into the 80s. This will provide at least
elevated fire conditions. There will be a Pacific front that will
initially cool temps slightly on Thursday before a more
significant front drives temps back to seasonal values heading
into the weekend. We are not mentioning a very low chance for
precip behind the front Thursday night as most models are further
north than the GFS with a s/wv which could lead to development of
the precip, but this will have to be watched/

FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected at times through the week next week. Wednesday and
Thursday appear to be the days where biggest concern occurs.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                42  64  40  69  35 /   0  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  44  71  42  71  33 /   5  20  30   0   0
Boise City OK              38  64  37  66  34 /   0  20   5   0   0
Borger TX                  45  67  44  71  39 /   0  20  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  67  39  70  33 /   0  20   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  41  66  39  69  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               44  67  43  71  38 /   0  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  66  36  68  30 /   0  20   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  41  69  40  70  33 /   0  20  10   0   0
Hereford TX                40  66  38  69  35 /   0  20   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  69  44  72  33 /   5  20  30   0   0
Pampa TX                   43  65  40  68  37 /   0  20  20   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  66  44  73  37 /   5  30  30   0   0
Wellington TX              46  69  45  74  39 /   5  40  30   0   0

&&

$$

99/2



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.