Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020945
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  85  65  90 /  40  50  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  90  67  88  66  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              87  62  85  62  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
BORGER TX                  90  69  88  68  93 /  40  50  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              90  68  88  67  93 /  40  50  40  30  10
CANYON TX                  90  66  86  64  90 /  40  40  40  30  10
CLARENDON TX               91  67  86  67  91 /  30  40  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 89  64  88  63  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
GUYMON OK                  89  65  88  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
HEREFORD TX                89  67  86  65  91 /  40  40  50  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  89  66  91 /  40  40  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   87  66  85  64  89 /  40  40  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                91  67  88  67  92 /  30  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  89  69  93 /  30  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18




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