Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 140433
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS...AND THEN DECREASE AFTER 00Z TO 01Z MONDAY TO SPEEDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z TO 01Z SUNDAY TO SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS...AND
THEN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE WARMING TREND THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RECENT COLD DUMP IS SCOURED OUT. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF NW FLOW FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH A
BULK OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE INGESTION OF EPAC TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE INTO THE FLOW PATTERN.

TONIGHT...
SHOULD BE DRY AND AGAIN COOL.

SUNDAY...
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WARMER AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO LOSE
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A
THUNDERSHOWER BY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
CONTINUE TO SOME EXTENT OR ANOTHER CRUISING THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH
FOR TIMING BETWEEN THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF AND SLOWER GFS/GEM. IT LOOKS
LIKE A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (IE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE)
WILL BE PRESENT BOTH PREFRONTAL (SFC BASED) AND POST FRONTAL
(ELEVATED BUT UNINHIBITED). THINK WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV...SOME
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW AND THAT INSTABILITY...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...PLUS THE ABILITY OF NW
FLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP LATE THIS SUMMER...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH NW UPR FLOW IN THE AREA DID LEAVE SOME TOKEN 20
POPS HERE AND THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES DRASTICALLY BEYOND
THURSDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE FLIPPING AND FLOPPING MORE THAN
SANDALS ON A BEACH.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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