Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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978
FXUS64 KAMA 200918
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
418 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main items for this forecast include the downward trend in
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, and therefore no need for
headlines regarding heat advisories at this time. Otherwise,
thunderstorm chances remain across the Panhandles for several days
in this forecast package, and the chance for severe weather will be
possible at the very least today and tomorrow across the area.
Widespread severe weather does not appear likely.

For today, a surface trough will be evident across eastern Colorado,
so most of the surface forcing will be north of the forecast area.
The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be across
northwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle and western parts of the
Oklahoma Panhandle where an axis of 3000-4000 J/kg of most unstable
CAPE is being forecast. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are not that
impressive but decent enough around 30-40 knots to help support some
rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings are depicting high LCL heights
and an inverted-V profile with large dew point depressions at the
surface. The threat for tornadoes looks minimal at best today, but
strong wind gusts do look more likely. Large hail will also be
possible in some of the more discrete cells. On Wednesday, a similar
setup is anticipated with high LCL and an inverted-V profile.
Surface forcing will be a little stronger as southerly winds
increase in intensity, and mid level lapse rates will be higher on
Wednesday as well. Of the next two days, it appears Wednesday is the
better day to support severe weather across the Panhandles. Less
instability around on Thursday, but there are also signs pointing to
the chance for severe weather as well, mainly across northern
portions of the forecast area, but confidence is less likely on
Thursday than compared to today and Wednesday.

Models have trended downward slightly in regards to high
temperatures on both Wednesday and Thursday; as a result, went
ahead and lowered highs slightly on both days. Wind speeds are
more southerly/southeasterly pulling in more moisture and cloud
chances (especially Wednesday). The difference in highs is small
but definitely noticeable and worth mentioning since we have been
talking about possible heat advisories. Some areas will be around
100-105, so we may still need to highlight the concern for heat
across the area on these two days.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  66  96  67  97 /   5  20   5  30   5
Beaver OK                  98  68  99  69  98 /   5  20   5  30  10
Boise City OK              94  63  97  67  98 /  20  20  20  20  20
Borger TX                  97  70  99  70 100 /   5  20   5  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              99  64 103  68 104 /   5  20  10  30  10
Canyon TX                  95  66  98  67  99 /   5  20   5  20   5
Clarendon TX               93  67  95  68  94 /   0  10   5  20   5
Dalhart TX                 98  63 102  66 102 /  10  20  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  98  66 100  68 101 /  10  20  20  30  10
Hereford TX                97  65 100  66 102 /   5  20   5  20   5
Lipscomb TX                97  68  97  69  97 /   0  20   5  30   5
Pampa TX                   95  67  96  67  96 /   5  20   5  30   5
Shamrock TX                95  67  96  68  96 /   0  10   5  20   5
Wellington TX              95  68  96  69  96 /   0   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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