Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220859
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
359 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level disturbance continues to push east with northerly flow
on the back side for the Panhandles. Some low to mid level clouds
will still be present limiting today`s heating, but northerly
winds 10 to 15 mph will keep highs struggling to reach 60 across
most areas.

Tonight winds will start to die down and skies will begin to
clear as high pressure moves over the forecast area. Strong
radiational cooling will lead to temperatures approaching
freezing. As a result we could see a frost Sunday morning. With
clear skies and returning south winds temperatures will be back in
the low 70s.

Sunday night into Monday flow will shift more zonal, but warming
aloft and sufficient mixing will allow for temperatures to reach
upper 80s to near 90.

Upper level trough axis will begin to move over the Panhandles on
Tuesday. Right now showers/storms look like they will be mainly
over the northern Texas, and OK Panhandle. The fast moving cold
front will move through and exit by Wednesday evening.

Models diverge a bit at this point, but overall an upper level
trough will begin to dive south, the timing and position of this
trough will drastically impact the extended. Multiple solutions
suggest anything from an overnight shortwave on Thursday morning,
leading to elevated convection, and a fairly strong cold front
behind. We could also see a deeper longwave trough centered mainly
over the four corners region with very warm southerly flow ahead
on Thursday. With southeast moisture advection ahead of this
system a strong dryline looks to set up along the eastern TX/OK
state line. Right now if we see sever weather, it will likely be
east of the Panhandles, which matches up with SPC`s 15 percent
prob severe for Friday over Oklahoma.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds will mix down on Monday afternoon with very warm
temperatures and relative humidities ranging from 10 to 20 percent
across the western and central Panhandles. Eastern portions will
be in the 20 to 30 percent. This will put most of the area in
Elevated Fire Weather conditions, and therefore a Fire Danger
Statement might be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday will still be warm but humidities will be
higher and the southwest portions of the Panhandles might touch 20
percent.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR ceiling to prevail during the overnight hours at all
three terminals. During the late morning hours Saturday, we will
see ceiling starting to improve before all terminal return to VFR
by 20Z at the latest. VFR conditions should then prevail through
the remainder of the 06Z TAF forecast period while winds become
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  36  71  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  60  33  73  50  87 /   5   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              56  34  72  50  85 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  60  38  72  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              60  36  74  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  58  36  71  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  36  70  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 59  36  73  47  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  59  36  73  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                60  37  71  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  36  71  50  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   59  36  69  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                61  38  71  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  39  72  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/89/14


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