Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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508
FXUS64 KAMA 102311 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KGUY AND SHIFTED WINDS TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KAMA AND KDHT
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
ORIENTED FROM JUST NORTH OF GUYMON TO JUST NORTH OF DALHART.
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS NEGLIGABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW TEMPERATURE
GRID WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THANKS TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FURTHER EAST WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES KNOCKED DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES. SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOW THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WARM INTO THE MID 60S. MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
THESE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THEY WILL
LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT MUCH THE SAME WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS ON THE RISE YET
AGAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES
IMPROVE. A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW BUT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH TO PROHIBIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIP CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING NEAR 20 PERCENT AND
20-FT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. MUCH CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD FORECAST MODELS VERIFY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/18



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