Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 271116 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FOR THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...SO
HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR THESE SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE LEFT THE
MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THIS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR...BUT CONDITIONS COULD GET DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE UNDER
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
WILL BE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BUT BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEAKENS
BY MID WEEK AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/88



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.