Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211752
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
For 18z TAFs...Will remain VFR through period except for very
isolated -tsra/MVFR cigs in the far western OK Panhandle and far
northwestern TX panhandle. Left -tsra out of KDHT TAFs due to
uncertainty in when/if storm will develop with very little
forcing. Winds will be gusting to 15-20KTS out of the southwest
gradually backing to more southerly through the afternoon and
decreasing after late evening. Any storms that can develop will
have potential for strong gusty downburst type winds.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 552 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals for the entire forecast period. Winds are expected to
become more southerly during the late morning and afternoon hours
with gusts around 25 KTS possible. Winds should once again decrease
to below 15 KTS by the evening hours. A few mid to high level clouds
could move in this afternoon and evening.

Lorenzen

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The center of the upper level high pressure system is found from the
Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas this morning. This high
should keep any shower and thunderstorm activity to our west again
today. The northwest edge of the upper level ridge will break down
some on Friday. This may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to
move into the northwest sections of the CWA.

The upper level ridge will weaken further Saturday through Tuesday.
Weak upper level short wave troughs will try to move through the
ridge over the panhandles during this time. These may be strong
enough to help produce some showers and thunderstorms.

The upper level ridge will then move to the west and this will put
the panhandles in a northwest flow aloft by Wednesday. This flow will
tend to bring any showers and thunderstorms that form over the
southern Rockies this way. So will keep pops in the forecast.

Temperatures will be the warmest through about Saturday and then
they should decrease a little as the upper level ridge breaks down
and moves back to the west.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/29


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