Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND THE
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND
BRIEF. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE MAY RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF CIMARRON
COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED AN INCH OR TWO YESTERDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH NEARLY A REPEAT IN
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTION. A GRADUAL
REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
AND DRIER MEAN FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
ISOLATED AT BEST FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. TOWARD MID WEEK
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN IT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE NET RESULT
BEING FAIRLY STEADY/NEUTRAL TENDENCIES IN MID LEVEL THERMAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS OUR REGION. NEVERTHELESS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A PERIOD OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF
JUST LIMITED THE NORTHERN PORTION AS HAS BEEN THE CASE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  95  70  95  71 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  72  99  72  99  73 /  40  20  20   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              67  97  67  96  69 /  40  20  30  10  10
BORGER TX                  74  99  74  97  74 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              72 100  71  98  72 /  10  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  70  96  69  96  70 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               72  97  71  96  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  99  69  97  70 /  20  10  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  71 100  71  98  72 /  40  10  20   5   5
HEREFORD TX                69  96  69  95  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                73  99  73  99  73 /  20  10  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  95  69  95  69 /   5   5   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  98  71  97  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  99  72  98  72 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17




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