Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 060952
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Latest observations show the first cold front has made its way
through the Panhandles and in its wake, colder temperatures and windy
conditions are expected throughout the day today with high
temperatures dropping below average for early December. Winds out of
the north between 10-15 kts will then decrease below 10 kts and shift
back to southeasterly as we go into this evening as a second
baroclinic zone sets up north of the Panhandles.

An upper level localized vorticity maximum moving east out of the
Rockies in-conjunction with the frontal boundary set up over western
Kansas will set the stages for some light snow. With this system
being moisture starved at the surface and at mid levels, continuing
the trends of decreasing QPF with the best chances of some snow
showers across the far northeastern combined Panhandles as we go
through the day on Wednesday as the main baroclinic zone sets up just
north of the Panhandles.

As we go into Wednesday night, a secondary push of very cold air
will dive south into the Panhandles as a surface high pressure system
expands south along the eastern edge of the Rockies. As the initial
expansion of the cold air moves south, a tight gradient will be
setting up along the initial boundary which will bring gusty winds
into the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with
northerly winds gusting over 30 kts at times. Winds will diminish as
we go into the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday to around 10
kts. Latest 06/00Z model and numerical data shows H700 and H850
temperatures of -10C to -13C and -8C to -10C respectively. With that
said, low temperatures Wednesday night will range from the single
digits across the northwestern Panhandles to mid and upper teens for
the rest of the region. With the exception of the far SE TX
Panhandle, the rest of the Panhandles region will be at or below
freezing for high temperatures as we go into the day on Thursday.

The cold air will remain through Thursday night with lows in the mid
to upper teens. Winds will then shift back to southwesterly as the
center of the high pressure shifts well to the east as we go from
Friday into the weekend. As a result, temperatures will rebound
nicely with high temperatures rebounding to near and even some above
average values as we go into the weekend. With a weak zonal upper
level flow returning to the region by the weekend, tranquil weather
is expected to continue straight into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  28  41  14  30 /   0   5   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  41  25  34  12  30 /   0  10  20   5   0
Boise City OK              37  21  31   9  29 /   0  10  10   5   0
Borger TX                  44  29  38  15  32 /   0   5  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  26  43  14  31 /   0   5   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  41  28  45  15  31 /   0   0   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               43  28  45  17  33 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 40  24  36  13  30 /   0   5   5   5   0
Guymon OK                  40  24  32  11  29 /   0  10  20   0   0
Hereford TX                42  27  47  14  32 /   0   0   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  26  36  14  32 /   0   5  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   40  27  37  13  30 /   0   5  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  28  43  19  34 /   0   5  10   0   0
Wellington TX              47  30  47  21  36 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29


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