Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040428 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUES PUSHING SWD
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAMA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. CONDITIONS
HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED AT KGUY AND KDHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SW BY AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OB REPORTS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND POPS SOUTH
AND EAST TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AN
INCH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
MOVG ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
SLATED LATE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS IF THE SNOW
DOES DEVELOP...ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH OR
SO. SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST.

CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FRIDAY MORNING INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HINTS AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. THE NAM AND GFS FORECASTING DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IN THE FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AND DRY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW 15 MPH ON THURSDAY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ACROSS THIS AREA OR A PORTION OF THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...EITHER 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND/OR MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$


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