Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221558
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RADAR ECHOES CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNDER THIS
BAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONCERN THEN TURNS TOWARD PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE ARE CURRENTLY EVALUATING THAT POTENTIAL...
BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR OR
NEAR MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF BOTH KDHT AND KAMA
ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT BOTH SITES WILL SEE AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. KGUY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SECONDARY SURGE BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  BREEZY NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME MIXED IN EARLY THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  BY 1 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT AIRMASS WILL
HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ALL LIGHT SNOW AREA-WIDE.  THAT BEING
SAID...NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA LOOKS LEAST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION...WHILE EVEN IN THE MOST FAVORED
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT BELOW ONE INCH.

PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.  STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS NORTH
WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 35 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH.  A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES.  WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD...TUESDAY WILL
BE UNCOMFORTABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE...AND WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE MORNING.

NO PRECIPITATION IN REMAINDER OF FORECAST.  MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING LATER PERIODS REGARDING TIMING OF UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPMENTS...SO FORECAST CERTAINTY FOR LATER PERIODS IS NOT HIGH.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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