Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 130928
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
428 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 18Z
TODAY. ALTHOUGH CURRENT GRIDS FORECASTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT...LATEST HRRR...TTU-WRF...RUC
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM FORECASTING NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS THIS MORNING TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT LEFT THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WEATHER
AND POP GRIDS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS ANY
LIQUID PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO POSSIBLY SLEET AND THEN SNOW
EARLY AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT PROMPTED A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 3 INCHES...LIKELY THERE. HOWEVER...1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN THE FIRST AND
SECOND PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY
NEXT OR LATER SHIFT. UPPER TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z MONDAY. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AND
INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MODELS BRINGING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  27  46  26  65 /  20  30  30   0   5
BEAVER OK                  57  30  43  24  67 /  30  70  20   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  23  40  26  64 /  40  80  20   5   5
BORGER TX                  69  30  46  29  66 /  20  40  30   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              72  28  45  26  69 /  20  40  30   0   5
CANYON TX                  76  28  48  25  66 /  20  30  30   0   5
CLARENDON TX               76  31  48  28  65 /  20  30  30   0   5
DALHART TX                 65  25  42  23  65 /  30  70  20   0   5
GUYMON OK                  57  25  41  26  65 /  30  80  20   0   5
HEREFORD TX                76  29  46  24  65 /  20  30  20   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                61  31  46  25  66 /  30  50  30   0   5
PAMPA TX                   66  29  42  27  65 /  20  30  30   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                76  32  48  28  64 /  20  30  30   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  33  51  28  66 /  20  20  30   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/11




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