Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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AXUS74 KAMA 121712
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OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-
341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-112359-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...RECENT RAINFALL BRINGS STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER ON JUNE 10TH...DEPICTS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO A MIX OF SEVERE (D2) TO
EXTREME (3) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST AND MOST FREQUENT. AFTER WHAT WAS
ONE OF THE DRIEST STARTS TO A YEAR...A SUDDEN SHIFT TO WETTER WEATHER
OVER THE LAST MONTH HAS MADE QUICK IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GROWING SEASON BEGAN ALMOST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RAIN STARTING A RAPID GREEN-UP OF VEGETATION AND
PROVIDING A GOOD BOOST TO SOIL MOISTURE FOR SUMMER CROPS TO BE
PLANTED. LONG-TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING
LOW RESERVOIR LEVELS...DRIER THAN NORMAL DEEP SOIL ZONES...AND
REDUCED AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT FROM FARMS AND RANCHES.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
BEGINNING AROUND MEMORIAL DAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN HAVE IMPACTED THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
THIS RAIN HAS PROVIDED A GOOD FOUNDATION OF SOIL MOISTURE FOR SUMMER
CROPS TO BE PLANTED...WITH SOME CROPS ALREADY STARTING TO EMERGE.
FOR IRRIGATED FIELDS...THE RAIN HAS BROUGHT THE OPPORTUNITY TO SLOW
IRRIGATION USE AND BUILD A DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE PROFILE AHEAD OF
SUMMER HEAT. THE RAIN WAS TOO LATE FOR DRYLAND WHEAT HOWEVER...AND
MOST OF THIS IS BEING GRAZED IF AVAILABLE. ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
UPPER ZONE SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT FULL...
WITH SCATTERED PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES
AT SLIGHT AGRICULTURALLY DRY (20 TO 30 PERCENT FULL). ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BORDER (WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST)...DEEPER SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS RANGE FROM 90 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS EVEN ESTIMATED AT GREATER THAN 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF LONG TERM DROUGHT...
HAS IMPROVED TO A RATING OF MODERATE DROUGHT FOR THE TEXAS HIGH
PLAINS REGION AS OF JUNE 7TH AND MAINTAINS A RATING OF SEVERE
DROUGHT FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE PALMER CROP MOISTURE INDEX...
AN INDICATOR OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT...INDICATED IMPROVEMENT TO
FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS AND TO
SLIGHTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON JUNE 7TH.

ACCORDING TO THE CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED JUNE 10TH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOLLOWING THE RECENT RAIN...SOME
FARMERS WHO HAD BEEN HOLDING OFF WERE RUSHING TO PLANT AHEAD OF CROP
INSURANCE DEADLINES. MOST OF THE REGION AGAIN RECEIVED SOME MUCH-
NEEDED MOISTURE. AMOUNTS RANGED FROM NEAR ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO AS
MUCH AS 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK...AND SOIL MOISTURE VARIED FROM VERY SHORT TO
ADEQUATE...WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING ADEQUATE. DEAF SMITH COUNTY
PRODUCERS FINISHED UP PLANTING AND PREPARING FOR A SHORT WHEAT
HARVEST. PRODUCERS WERE RUNNING IRRIGATION PUMPS HARD AND FAST ON
THE EARLY PLANTINGS OF CORN. COTTON BEGAN TO EMERGE...AND MOST
GRAIN SORGHUM HAD EMERGED AND LOOKED GOOD. WITH WARMER WEATHER AND
RAIN...RANGELAND AND PASTURES GREENED UP SOME. HOWEVER...SOME GRASS
STANDS HAD NOT YET RECOVERED FROM THE DROUGHT...AND RANGE AND
PASTURES WERE RATED AS BEING MOSTLY IN POOR CONDITION. THE CONDITION
OF CATTLE IMPROVED. HORN FLIES BECAME A PROBLEM AFTER RECENT RAINS.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
RECENT WETTING RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN AN EFFECTIVE GREEN-UP AND
RENEWED GROWTH OF AREA VEGETATIVE FUELS. THUS...THE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE GROWING SEASON. FIRE DANGER MAY INCREASE AGAIN ONCE VEGETATIVE
FUELS ARE SUBJECTED TO EITHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND DRYING
OR AFTER THE ONSET OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FALL. RAINS HAVE
DROPPED ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES TO LESS THAN THE 50TH
PERCENTILE...WITH VALUES OVER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 15 AND 30.

AS OF JUNE 11TH...COUNTYWIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS WERE SUPPORTED IN
HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS...HEMPHILL...OLDHAM...POTTER...WHEELER...DEAF
SMITH...ARMSTRONG...AND DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NO COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.

NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT
FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...
EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
SEVERAL PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE MAINTAINED
WATER USE WATCHES DURING THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH SOME OF THEM
PLACING VOLUNTARY AND EVEN MILD OR MODERATE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS ON
USE. PLEASE BE AWARE OF ANY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS OR CONSERVATION
EFFORTS IN YOUR COMMUNITY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AFTER MOUNTING LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HIT LEVELS DRIER
THAN DURING THE DUST BOWL AND 1950S DROUGHTS...THE LAST FEW
WEEKS HAVE SEEN A CHANGE TO A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE BROUGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM NEAR 2 INCHES TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 INCHES TO THE
PANHANDLES...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST 3 INCHES. UNTIL MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...MAY WAS A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY MONTH. COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...HIGH WIND CAUSED BLOWING DUST TO BE A
COMMON OCCURRENCE DURING THE MONTH. MEAN TEMPERATURES IN MAY
AVERAGED 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AMARILLO RECEIVED ABOUT 60
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 2010 THROUGH THIS MAY...
WHILE DRIER AREAS INCLUDING DALHART HAVE ONLY RECEIVED ABOUT 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAME PERIOD. BEFORE THE
RAINY PATTERN BEGAN AT THE END OF MAY...MANY LOCATIONS HAD
EXPERIENCED THEIR DRIEST 3 AND A HALF YEARS ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) REPORTS THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH MAY. THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SUMMER...WITH AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EL NINO
DEVELOPING THIS SUMMER. THE CHANCES FOR AN EL NINO DEVELOPING BY THE
FALL AND WINTER ARE AT 80 PERCENT...AND CPC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT
IF AN EL NINO DEVELOPS IT COULD REACH MODERATE STRENGTH. THEREFORE...
AN EL NINO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. DURING EL NINO EPISODES...
THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE LATE FALL THROUGH FOLLOWING SPRING PERIODS IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THERE IS ALSO A TENDENCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WINTER DURING EL NINO
EPISODES.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JUNE INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALSO FOR JUNE...THE CPC OUTLOOK
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH
AUGUST INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. IT ALSO INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW...NEAR...OR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST U.S.
MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED BY THE CPC...FORECASTS THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OR INTENSIFY ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THE END OF JUNE. THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK FORECASTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH AUGUST FOR THE PANHANDLES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...STREAMFLOWS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS...AND STREAMFLOWS IN
THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE AT BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS. LOWER ZONE SOIL RANGES MOSTLY FROM MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL) TO SLIGHT HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (20 TO 30
PERCENT FULL) ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...DEEPER SOILS ARE MOSTLY TOTAL HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT FULL) TO SEVERE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (1 TO 5 PERCENT
FULL). RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR HISTORICALLY LOW DEPTHS...THOUGH A
RISE OF NEARLY 3.5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT LAKE MEREDITH FROM A
RECENT MINIMUM JUST BEFORE MEMORIAL DAY. LAKE MEREDITH REACHED A
RECORD LOW DEPTH OF 26.14 FEET ON AUGUST 7TH LAST YEAR...BUT LEVELS
HAVE RISEN 10 FEET SINCE THEN BASED ON RAIN RECEIVED LAST FALL AND
DURING THE LAST MONTH.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 8TH...

                     CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
                   ELEVATION       CAPACITY     STORAGE  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

PALO DURO             2838.31         61066        1779          2.90
LAKE MEREDITH         2849.70        500000           0          0.00
GREENBELT LAKE        2620.59         59968        7985         13.30

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY JUNE 30TH...OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS):

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS HYDROLOGIC SERVICES...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.SWT.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD...HTTP://WWW.TWDB.TEXAS.GOV/
TWDB RESERVOIR LEVELS...HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE...HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE...AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1900 ENGLISH ROAD
AMARILLO TEXAS  79108
PHONE: 806-335-1121
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA

$$

FENNER



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