Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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644 FXUS63 KAPX 010141 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional rain chances into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Fast-moving area of low pressure and associated cold front has reached the Upper Mississippi Valley late this evening...generating a large area of convection stretching from Texas thru OK/KS/MO and into Wisconsin. Closer to home...area of persistent low clouds is finally making a move northeastward out of our CWA...only to be replaced by increasing clouds and increasing chances of showers as we head into the overnight hours. Current forecast is still handling the timing of these clouds and precip into our area fairly well...only minor adjustments needed. Still do not expect any thunder overnight due to lack of instability. Temps will generally hold steady overnight...ranging from the low to mid 40s across Eastern Upper Michigan to the upper 40s and lower 50s across Northern Lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pattern Forecast: Weak surface high pressure moves across the region through early tonight. A low pressure system will then track by to the north of the region late tonight into Wednesday morning (across Lake Superior). Cooler air moves in behind this system Wednesday afternoon. Forecast Details: Instability driven clouds are expected to dissipate this evening only to be replaced by a lowering cloud deck late tonight into Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the low pressure system likely leads to more instability clouds (especially north) Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile...a line of warm advection/synoptically driven rain showers are likely across the Upper Peninsula and Northwest Lower late tonight into Wednesday morning. Just chances for a few showers across southern zones with the least chances for showers as you head down toward Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s far north to the mid 40s south. Lowered highs for Wednesday with a large range of temperatures expected. Highs only in the mid 50s north with low 70s expected near Saginaw Bay. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Pattern Forecast: Mid-level shortwave troughing and attendant area of surface low pressure expected to be scooting off to the northeast at the start of the period Wednesday night. Troughing set to be replaced by amplifying ridging aloft through Thursday in advance of another system pinwheeling across the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains. Warm/moist advection in advance of a warm front associated with this system will aid to bring rain/thunder chances back into the forecast late Thursday into Friday. Another quick- moving disturbance over the weekend may bring another brief shot of active weather. Forecast Details: At the start of the forecast period Wednesday night, low pressure centered to the east of Lake Superior will continue to depart downstream. Perhaps a lingering sprinkle or light shower far north; otherwise, tranquil conditions anticipated Wed. night - Thursday with Thursday afternoon highs climbing through the mid-upper 60s for most...cooler near the lakeshores and eastern U.P. Next shower/storm chances arrives late in the day Thursday into Thursday night in response to warm/moist advection and increased forcing for ascent aloft -- all associated with low pressure sliding through the northern Plains to near the Manitoba/Ontario border by midday Friday. System`s cold front crosses Friday morning/midday, continuing at least scattered shower and low thunder chances into early afternoon. A break in the action expected Friday night through much of Saturday, but with at least low PoPs returning to the forecast by later Saturday/Saturday night in response to another quick-moving disturbance progged to race across the western Great Lakes. Generally quiet weather to round out the weekend. Somewhat noteworthy is daily high temperatures through pretty much the entirety of the long term forecast period rising into the 60s and low 70s for the majority of northern Michigan -- of course cooler near the lakeshores (as is so often the case this time of year) and across the eastern U.P. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Fast-moving area of low pressure and associated cold front will sweep thru the Western Great Lakes region later tonight into Wednesday morning...bringing a quick bout of showers to Northern Michigan during this time. MVFR/IFR conditions will hold on across Eastern Upper Michigan tonight into Wednesday morning... with mainly MVFR/low VFR conditions expected across Northern Lower Michigan thru Wednesday. Light/variable winds tonight will become SE at 10 to 20 kts Wednesday morning...shifting to the west at 15 to 25 kts Wednesday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...MLR