Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 170003
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

A stronger system is approaching from the west, allowing gusty
east winds to continue strengthening this evening. Humidities will
increase through the night as wide spread wetting rain chances
move in from the west. Winds will be gusty Wednesday as rain
chances linger through the day. Cooler temperatures for the later
half of the week.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43...except 45-50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 18 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (152).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.43 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....55-60...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler...except 16 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......53 percent wetter...except 46 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (363).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.52 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (97).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.26 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (414).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (94).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.28 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......50 percent wetter...except 40 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (307).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.29- 0.78 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (77).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.23 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (477).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-170815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.14- 0.33 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......50 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (313).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (111).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (360).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-170815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 44 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (196).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.14- 0.34 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 1200, then rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent.
   24 HR Trend......52 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (284).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.51 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (159).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.21 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (418).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
803 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (163).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.31 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 HR Trend......48 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (268).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.26- 0.65 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (86).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.24 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (478).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JK
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