912
FNUS73 KAPX 020853
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for National City SVE RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
453 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Clouds will be on the increase at the burn site late
today, but no rain is expected until tonight. Winds will be light
this morning, becoming northeast by ignition, then east and a touch
gusty this afternoon. Humidity levels will not be as dry as
yesterday. A chance of rain showers tonight, will give way to likely
showers on Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 6 to 7 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the southeast 6
                    to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000-3200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (139.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  55  35  16  23  25  69  83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  56  58  60  61  62  62  61
RH..............59  55  51  49  48  46  44  46
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.13  13  16  16  16  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   7   8   8   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....139 178 153 219 255 242 236 201
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the evening. Patchy fog
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........97 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9
                    mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (37.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  80  77  76  76  83  84  75  65  73  81  89
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............58  55  52  49  48  48  48  47  47  48  48  49
RH..............51  55  66  74  77  77  77  79  79  83  93  97
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.17  17  17  14  14  14  10  10  10  8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Haines index....4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   SE  S
Transp wind spd.10  12  10  12  10  10  9   10  8   8   9   8
Vrate kt-ft.....184 173 118 118 59  53  51  54  37  38  44  38
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........59 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 6 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2600-2700 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (39.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........83     71     84     91     93     90
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............49     53     60     65     67     67
RH..............97     91     66     60     61     64
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     S      SW     SW     NW
20 ft wind spd..5      5      7      8      8      8
20 ft wind gust.8      8      12     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1100   1700   1800   2600
Haines index....2      3      3      3      5      5
Transport wind..S 9    S 8    S 10   SW 13  W 10   NW 13
Vrate kt-ft.....40     40     110    209    188    312
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...JZ
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412945.1/APX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov