435
FNUS73 KAPX 060807
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Green Timbers East...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Some wisps of high clouds this morning; otherwise, sun-filled
skies at the burn site today. Efficient warming/mixing this afternoon with
high temperatures in the low 70s and RHs falling to near-critical levels.
Calm winds this morning turn east-southeast for the afternoon, generally
below 10 mph. Inland penetrating lake breezes are expected this afternoon --
off of both Lake Michigan and Huron. While confidence is low, potential exists
for these boundaries to collide over central/northern Otsego County late
in the afternoon. If this occurs, chaotic wind shifts can be expected
at the burn site with winds temporarily taking on a northerly component before
turning back southeast again this evening as any lake influence diminishes.

Good RH recovery tonight as temperatures cool back into the 30s. Increasing
clouds expected Tuesday with shower/storm chances arriving late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........25 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000-5300 ft AGL increasing to 6000-6500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (274.0-450.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   1   3   4   4   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  66  68  69  71  73  73
RH..............38  33  31  28  27  25  26
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   5   6   5   3   2   1
20 ft wind gust.6   8   8   8   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   7   7   6
Vrate kt-ft.....274 306 346 364 445 450 368
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........82 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 6 to 7 mph in the
                    evening, then becoming light late in the
                    evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5100-6300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (27.0-436.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   2   1   3   5   8   9   11  12  11  10  8
Weather cov.....                                            ARS
Weather type....                                            FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  69  66  61  56  51  47  44  42  39  38  37
RH..............29  32  37  42  51  59  65  73  76  82  82  82
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   8   8   8   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.16  16  16  14  14  14  6   6   6   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 5.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   10  10  10  9   8   8   8   8   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....436 350 101 57  56  39  32  29  28  28  27  28
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........31 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 22
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (26.0) increasing to fair to good
                    (552.0-982.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........12     19     6      15     39     67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............38     45     58     64     68     68
RH..............79     68     44     35     31     33
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..5      5      12     13     13     13
20 ft wind gust.9      9      17     18     18     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    2000   3300   4300   4300
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..SE 8   SE 10  SE 20  SE 21  SE 22  SE 22
Vrate kt-ft.....26     47     391    686    935    951
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413223.0/APX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov