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000
FXUS63 KARX 161919
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MINOR RAIN THREATS TO START THE WEEK SEEM LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS FORECAST WITH OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET FLOW.

STUNNING FATHERS DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MUCH NEEDED
DRYING. UNFORTUNETLY CANT KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST LONG THESE
DAYS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE WAVES
ARE SPINNING OFF CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STILL SEEING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM THAT COULD WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO MONDAY. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM STORM
COMPLEX OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM...MODELS STRUGGLING WITH RESOLUTION OF THESE
EMBEDDED WAVES BUT WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY MONDAY...BOUNDARY
AND PROXIMTY TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MINOR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

EVEN THOUGH LAST IN SERIES OF SHORT WAVES COULD IMPACT AREA ON
TUESDAY...DRYING AIRMASS AND SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS THIS COULD
COUNTER ANY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST
RIDING SINCE CHANCES FOR RAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO FAR.

COOL AIRMASS WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE FAVORED VALLEYS COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALREADY RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BUT BULK OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN WEEK AS ANY
APPROACHING PRECIPITATION BATTLES DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALSO TAKES PLACE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NATIONAL DISCUSSION SUMMARIZED IT WELL WITH THE WORD MESSY REGARDING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID
SECTION GROWS INITIALLY...SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF TROUGH OVER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF
AREA. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST WILL BE SHUNTED OFF EVENTUALLY BUT COULD
HOLD BULK OF RAIN THREAT OFF ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS
AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY.

RIDGE FLATTENS QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES COULD VERY WELL
SEE SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS /MCS/. HARD TO
PUT ANY IDEA OF TIMING SO GENERAL RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
LOOK REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOP AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4500 TO 5000 FT.
CIRRUS WILL MOVE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP