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000 AXNT20 KNHC 271117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front has begun to stall across the western Atlantic, from 31N59W to the central Leeward Islands. High pressure of 1030 mb resides across the eastern Atlantic near 37N43W. The pressure gradient between the high and a surface trough that has developed about 120 nm E of the front, is producing an elongated band of strong to gale-force SE winds. Gales currently extend northward of 26.5N between 54W and 57W, with seas of 12 to 13 ft in mixed E and SE swell. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are also persisting across this area, along and to the east of the surface trough. The area of SE gales will shift northward along and to the east of the surface trough through this afternoon, and lift out of the area waters by mid-afternoon. Seas in this area will build to 12 to 16 ft during that time. Strong SE winds to near 30 kt are then expected across this area through Thu. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... Large northerly swell generated across the NW Atlantic in the past 48 hours continues to propagate southward across the western Atlantic, behind a cold front that extends from 31N59W to the central Leeward Islands. This large swell is generally from the N to NE W of 68W and NW to N between the front and 68W. Seas of 12 to 15 ft prevail N of 24N between 64W and 78W, and have peaked in recent hours. This swell has reached the NE Caribbean Islands and SE Bahamas overnight and is moving through the Caribbean Passages at this time. An associated 1005 mb low pressure center just SW of Bermuda near 31.5N65W will move southeastward during the next 48 hours and help to maintain the development of northerly swell moving towards the northeast Caribbean. However, the current swell in the water will gradually subside today, and fall below 12 ft this evening. Moderate northerly swell will continue to impact the area waters W of 60W tonight through Thu night. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to 01N22W, crossing the Equator along 23W, 06S26W, and 08S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward between 10W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has nearly stalled across the basin overnight, extending from the western Florida panhandle near Cape San Blas to the central Bay of Campeche. A dry and reinforcing secondary front follows, and stretches from near Pensacola, Florida to extreme NE Mexico, just south of Brownsville, Texas. Fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are behind the second front. The pressure gradient between the leading front and a high pressure ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh SE to S winds east of the front, where seas have subsided to 4 to 7 ft. Satellite imagery shows a line of scattered moderate isolated strong thunderstorms within 120 nm east of the first front, and north of 27N. For the forecast, high pressure will build modestly into the W Gulf this morning through Thu, which will produce fresh to strong winds and building seas behind the second front, as the front merge late today and move across the south-central and southeast Gulf Thu through Thu evening. Expect rough seas in the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf Fri into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwest Gulf by late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 5 to 8 ft, ahead of a cold front currently moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. The Atlantic cold front has moved slowly SE and across the central Leeward Islands overnight. A narrow ridge extends from N of the Bahamas into the SE Bahamas, and is producing moderate northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean. Large northerly swell has reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and Passages overnight, with regional buoy observations suggesting seas of 6 to 9 ft through the area passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered showers are across the Virgin Islands and waters to the immediate SW, while scattered moderate to heavy showers are ahead of the front across the northern Windward Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean will diminish this afternoon and tonight, as a cold front moves SE into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and large swell will follow the front as it moves in through the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will continue to move SE and reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Fri morning, as wind and seas begin to diminish behind the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage Fri night through late Sat, as the front stalls from central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean Sun as high pressure builds north of the region and to the east of the northern Bahamas, in the wake of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large northerly swell dominates the Western Atlantic between the Bahamas and 60W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front is analyzed from 31N59W to the central Leeward Islands. A weak surface trough is within 120 nm E of the front and is producing mostly cloudy skies and moderate to heavy shower activity across and to the NE of the northern Windward Islands. A broad zone of strong to gale-force SE winds prevail E of the front, to the N of 24N. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on the gales. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection persists along and within 240 nm east of the front, to the north of 20N. High pressure is building in behind the front with a ridge extending southward toward the SE Bahamas, and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are N of 27N and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16 ft in north swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of moderate SE winds W of 78W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a high pressure center of 1030 mb located W of the Azores near 37N43W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of the associated ridge and extends to along the above mentioned cold front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across the trade wind zone N of 14N and E of 50W, and 11 to 13 ft along and NE of the front. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic S of 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N59W to the central Leeward Islands will move slowly eastward and weaken through Thu, as associated low pressure currently just SW of Bermuda moves southeastward to near 29N59W around midday, and stalls near 26N59W on Thu. E of the front, a broad band of strong to gale-force SE winds extends across the far NE offshore waters, and are expected to diminish below gale-force this afternoon. The front will move eastward of the regional waters and gradually weaken by Fri, as the low pressure weakens, and lifts northward again, passing to the east of Bermuda early Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move off the NE coast of Florida Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri morning, and from 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat morning. Looking ahead, the front will stall and weaken from 31N55W to the Leeward Islands by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish in most areas W of the front as high pressure builds along 27N in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling

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