338
AXNT20 KNHC 301032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W/21W
from 03N to 14N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east and
180 nm west of the wave from 07N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from
02N to 10N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Broken to overcast
multilayer clouds along with clusters of moderate convection are
from 03N to 08N between 32W and the wave, and from 03N to 10N
between the wave and 40W.

A tropical wave has recently entered the far southeastern
Caribbean Sea, with its axis along 62W and south of 14N. It is
moving westward at 15 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds
with embedded scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within
120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W/87W south of 21N
to inland Honduras and northwest Nicaragua. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
west of the wave over western Nicaragua and southeastern
Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from
06N22W to 03N35W. Scattered moderate is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 24W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is present generally elsewhere
across the basin.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is analyzed from
northeast Florida southwestward to just north of western
Cuba. No significant weather is occurring with this feature.
Otherwise, weak high pressure is over the region as a warm
front is analyzed from extreme southwestern Louisiana to
inland central Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 28N to 31N between 89W-92W.

Slight to moderate seas are over the western half of the area.
Slight seas are over the eastern half of the area. Fresh northeast
to east winds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate southeast winds are elsewhere west of 88W, while light to
gentle winds are east of 88W.

Hazy conditions, that are due to agricultural fires in Mexico and
in Central America, are persisting in most of the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging will continue
across the area into early next week. As a result, winds will
pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and
western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern part of broad upper-level troughing reaches southward
to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A series of impulses are
passing through the base of the upper trough. Southwesterly flow
aloft across the base of the upper trough continues to transport
abundant tropical moisture from the southwestern Caribbean to
sections of the northwestern and north-central Caribbean Sea, and
to across the southern Atlantic waters between 45W and 76W. The
atmospheric environment will remain very unstable and conducive
for additional heavy rainfall to affect some areas of the Greater
Antilles. Numerous moderate moderate to strong convection is noted
from 11N to 15N west of 80W to inland the eastern section of
Nicaragua and inland northern Costa Rica. This activity is likely
to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and at the same
time be accompanied by frequent lightning. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office for the
latest information on this activity.

An area of increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is
confined to south of 13N between the coast of NW Colombia and
79W. This activity is exhibiting frequent lightning, and is along
and north of the eastern portion of the E Pacific monsoon trough
that extends from northern Panama to inland Colombia near 10N73W.

Overnight scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trade winds
from about 12N to 15N between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are elsewhere across the basin, except for light
to gentle winds over the northwestern and north-central sections.
Latest altimeter data passes indicate slight seas north of 15N
and west of 80W. Moderate seas are over the rest of the basin.

Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due
to persistent agricultural fires in Central America. The haze
may be reducing the visibility to around 3 nm at times,
especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay
Islands.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Winds will
become moderate to fresh Thu through Fri as the pressure gradient
slackens some. The pressure gradient will increase Fri night
behind a tropical wave that is currently in the far southeastern
part of the Caribbean leading to fresh to strong trade winds
across the central basin through early Mon. The tropical wave
along 86W/87W will move inland the Yucatan Peninsula and northern
Central America today. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central
America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N32W to 29N52W and
southwestward to near Puerto Rico and to the eastern Caribbean
near 15N67W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 to
120 nm south of the trough between 30W-49W. Broken to overcast
multilayer cloud, with embedded scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 25N between 50W and 58W, also
from 18N to 22N between 58W and 68W and from 19N to 25N between
42W and 50W. Weak high pressure is present generally elsewhere
across the basin.

Overnight scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds from 07N
to 19N between 30W and 61W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
from 14N to 21N east of 26W. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere over the basin. Pockets of moderate seas are from 08N
to 20N between 35W and 61W and from 14N to 21N between 17W and
26W.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region
is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the
forecast waters. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast today, move across the western half of the area through Fri
night, and across the remainder of the forecast waters through
late Mon. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten
the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to
fresh winds across waters north of 20N. Moderate seas can also be
expected with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by
early next week north of 27N.

$$
Aguirre