Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
6N30W TO 8N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N8N BETWEEN 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
NOTED AROUND THE HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXITING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT S FLORIDA TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ALSO
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS
AT 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
FRONT WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 80W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA
... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM
E CUBA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W
TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS NEAR NASSAU. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT REACHING S
FLORIDA. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 22N44W TO 17N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE THROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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