Tropical Weather Discussion
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479
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N16W ALONG 4N26W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-44W AND FROM 2
TO THE EQUATOR W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES
INTO THE E GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR
SW FLORIDA AND THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF
LINE FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 23N. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER E
TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
S/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E GULF. DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ACROSS ISLA COZUMEL TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUNTA ALLEN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS S THROUGH LATE
TODAY THEN BECOMING REINFORCED SAT AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS
MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY SPREADING
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS COULD
GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ALONG 29N79W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 21N77W TO 31N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR
20N65WCONTINUING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 10N61W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
REINFORCED SAT WITH SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES
FROM 32N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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