Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW
TO 02S14W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W TO 03S35W TO THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E OF 04W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO 01S BETWEEN 07W AND 32W...
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 03N
W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W. RIDGING AND A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 20 TO
25 KT E OF 93W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE REMAINDER SW
GULF WHILE LIGHTER WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE NW BASIN. THE
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE STRAITS WILL MOVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 81W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN
W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA SW TO NORTHERN HONDURAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TAIL
REACHING EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS
COASTAL AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME
CLOUDINESS BUT NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TAIL OF
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MOST
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N77W SW TO
26N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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