669
AXNT20 KNHC 021010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 00N49W. Scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf and
continues to dominate the basin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
are across the western half of the basin, with combined seas of 3
to 6 ft. The high pressure is supporting generally calm to light
breezes across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the
basin. The fresh to strong pulsing winds in the western half of
the Gulf will prevail through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will
prevail in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula
due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds
over the eastern half of the basin, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail W of 75W. Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft in the E
Caribbean, and 1-4 ft over the W Caribbean. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage ahead of a surface trough analyzed along 79W and
N of 15N. This trough is the reflection of an upper level trough,
which will continue to support persistent heavy rainfall through
the week in this region which may increase the chance of flash
flooding in low lying areas.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area will continue to
support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the central
and eastern Caribbean. The ridge is expected to slide eastward and
weaken today, reducing the areal coverage and limiting these
winds to the SE Caribbean by this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently affecting eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and
adjacent passages will expand in coverage today. Moderate to
fresh NE winds in the lee Cuba, NW Caribbean and the Windward
Passage will develop tonight and continue through Sat night.
Gentle to moderate trades are expected basin-wide the remainder
forecast period, except for fresh winds in the south-central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda dominates the western
Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E
winds south of the high pressure along the north coast of
Hispaniola and near the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate
E to SE winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N and west of 55W.
Recent altimeter and buoy data show combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in
this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas
are noted closer into the ridge, north of 25N and west of 55W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the southern
Bahamas and offshore Hispaniola, ahead of an upper trough
approaching from the west.

A weak cold front is analyzed farther east from 31N39W to 26N52W.
Winds ahead of this front have diminished to moderate speeds.
Seas of 7 to 9 ft continue behind the front. Combined seas of 6
to 8 ft are ahead of the front, north of 30N and west of 35W.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident between
30W-50W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 28N and east of
20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge across the SW
Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly
winds S of 25N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage.
The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken today, while a
surface trough develops just N of Hispaniola. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the trough will support pulsing
strong E-SE winds E of the trough and moderate to fresh NE-E winds
W of the trough. The trough will also amplify the area of showers
and tstms currently affecting the southern Bahamas and the Great
Bahama Bank. The trough is forecast to become a weak low, which
will track NE Fri through Sat, and open back into a trough while
exiting the area on Sun.

$$
ERA