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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE WAVE
REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS
POSITION HAS BEEN COINCIDING WITH A GLOBAL-MODEL-INDICATED AREA
OF MAXIMUM POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE
WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO
6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 3N34W AND 4N41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
18W AND 23W. SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 35W AND
37W...AND FROM LAND TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 12W 1W AND 11W...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 26W AND
34W... AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. MOISTURE THAT IS AT
DIFFERENT LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-
TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO
29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FOLLOWING
FLORIDA STATIONS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 OF A MILE
WITH FOG...THE NAVAL AIR STATION THAT IS NEAR MILTON FLORIDA...
THE SIKES GENERAL AIRPORT IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...PANAMA CITY
BEACH...TALLAHASSEE...AND PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS
OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KGUL. ICAO
STATIONS KGBK AND KMYT ARE REPORTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
15N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF HONDURAS... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND
7N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 7N85W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND
82W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N TO
THE WEST OF 72W.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W
AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N51W...TO 20N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W
AND 81W AROUND JAMAICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A 250 MB TROUGH TO BE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL ALSO GIVES
THE FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN
ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
25N51W...TO 20N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N58W AND 24N62W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
24N62W TO 22N67W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 21N73W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N45W... TO
A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W... CONTINUING
TO 26N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W
AND 54W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
23N22W AND 16N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 54W IS INTERRUPTED BY A 1020 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N45W 29N45W 26N46W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 15N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT