Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201650
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N TO
09N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE NE GULF.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN TODAY.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS SURROUNDING
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US
TONIGHT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W. MAINLY 10-
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS UP TO 25
KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG
THE S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST SUPPORTS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND
79W. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
35N53W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N52W TO 27N54W TO 27N63W TO 29N68W. THE WESTERNMOST
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 31N47W TO 24N53W TO 21N61W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N18W SUPPORTS
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
SOUTH OF 32N EAST OF 44W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH CONVECTION. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US COAST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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