Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED 24.6N 72.7W AT 25/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 105 NM E-NE OF SAN SALVADOR AND ABOUT 650 NM SW OF
BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED...4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
19N26W TO 12N26W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N37W
TO 12N38W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE CONVECTION NEAR BY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO
10N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME DENSE AEROSOLS AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE NOAA AEROSOLS COMPONENT GRAPHIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 16N16W TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N25W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS W OF THAT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N27W TO A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE THAT TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 11N42W ALONG 7N54W TO 9N59W. A SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF AND SE CONUS WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE BRIDGING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST S OF TAMPA BAY ALONG 28N88W
TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR GRAND ISLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS W ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG
26N91W TO 29N87W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES IS ENHANCING THE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED THE FRONT
ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SE GULF
NEAR 23N83W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES S TO A POSITION FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY TUE. THE REMNANT TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG 9N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO OVER PANAMA E OF 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF SAINT LUCIA
INCLUDING BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO T.S. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED INSTABILITY OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED. THE NATIONAL
METEOROLOGY OFFICE...ONAMET...CONTINUES THE WEATHER ALERTS FOR
FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS  OF THE ISLAND. PLEASE
SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONAMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE T.S. CRISTOBAL
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN
55W-76W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N67W ALONG 29N71W TO 29N74W THEN WEAKENS ALONG 28N77W THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF T.S. CRISTOBAL WITHIN 120/150 NM
23N71W 28N67W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 14N59W TO
10N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF SAINT
LUCIA AND 14N E OF THE TROUGH TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO
TO MOVE N-NE THROUGH WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS W ATLC
BEHIND T.S. CRISTOBAL ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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