Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 37.3N 21.5W at 15/0300 UTC or
about 265 nm E of the Azores, moving NE at 24 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 33N-43N between 18W-23W. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is
forecast to begin later tonight, but Ophelia is forecast to become
a post- tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it
approaches Ireland on Monday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A cold front will move off the coast of Texas Sunday night,
reach from the Florida Big Bend to 23N94W to the Bay of Campeche
late Mon, and then stall from Tampa Bay to 25N91W to 18N93W late
Tue night. Meanwhile a trough over the south central Gulf, on
the northern extent of a tropical wave, will drift into the SW
Gulf ahead of the front through Mon. The combination of a
slightly tighter pressure gradient along with cooler and drier
air associated with the front will allow winds funneling along
the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale force from Tampico to
Veracruz Monday through late Tuesday, with seas reaching 8 to 13
ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N38W to 03N39W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 38W-40W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N45W to 05N47W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis from
11N-14N between 46W-52W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
wave axis from 12N-15N between 42W-46W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
23N63W to an embedded 1008 mb low near 19N63W to 12N64W, moving W
at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of abundant moisture as noted on
SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a
distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
wave axis from 17N-23N between 59W-63W. Scattered moderate
convection is also from 22N-24N between 60W-65W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America with axis
extending from 19N87W to 07N88W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is
in a region of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The
wave is in a surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N23W to 05N37W. The ITCZ then resumes near 05N40W to
07N45W...resuming again near 09N48W to 10N59W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection is from 10N-12N between 50W-
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 27N90W
to 19N90W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Cuba from
23N-24N between 82W-85W. Mostly fair weather is over the NE Gulf.
10-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest
winds over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level
high is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W, with
subsidence. Expect the trough to move W over the next 24 hours.
Also expect a cold front to move off the coast of Texas early
Monday morning with fresh to strong winds behind it. Gale force
winds will develop associated with this front. See special
features above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and
Panama. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 10N-14N between 80W-84W. Scattered showers are over Honduras
and Nicaragua. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level
high is centered over the Windward Islands near 14N65W, with
subsidence. Expect the E Caribbean tropical wave to produce more
convection over the E Caribbean over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection persists over SW Hispaniola.
Expect scattered showers and isolated showers in the afternoon and
evening hours Sunday. Expect additional convection to start Sunday
evening due to the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Ophelia is over the E Atlantic. See above. A surface
trough is over the W Atlantic and the Bahamas from 31N77W to an
embedded 1016 mb low near 28N78W to 24N78W.  Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough. The system is moving W
towards Florida. Further east, a surface trough is noted from
30N61W to 23N66W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Elsewhere, a cold front has dipped into the E Atlantic and
central Atlantic from 31N27W to 29N40W to 28N47W to 30N52W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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