Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 302351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W
FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 72W FROM
OVER HAITI TO OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W ALONG 16N20W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
12N28W TO 8N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N52W
TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N
E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 1009 MB LOW DOTTING THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 27W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E
CONUS ANCHORED OVER S OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR
PANAMA CITY THEN ALONG 28N87W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 23N E OF 93W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE E BAY CAMPECHE. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W TO OVER TEXAS. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR 25N SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA THEN W TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING
S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-63W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT N ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N77W ALONG
30N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WATERS FROM VERO BEACH
TO TITUSVILLE W OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N TO 31N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
30N71W TO 25N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE AZORES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N59W
THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF
THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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