Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 15N29W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 28W-37W AND AN AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
CENTERED NEAR 11N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N59W TO 18N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ
REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N88W TO 21N87W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GUATEMALA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 82W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N280W TO 10N34W TO 08N44W TO 10N59W TO 09N61W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 10W-21W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 36W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS WITHIN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. GIVEN THE FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
ALOFT...THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS WELL. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N89W IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 85W-88W...FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 21N ALONG 87W MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-95W...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD...
THE WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED BETWEEN 25N-28N THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 87W...OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE
ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...IS THE PERSISTENCE OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THIS
AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER REMAINS
FAIRLY BENIGN DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N50W SW TO BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING W OF 70W...HOWEVER MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N62W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N63W TO 21N66W. AN
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN
58W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB HIGH
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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