Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 19.9W AT 30/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 226 NM E-SE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 16N
E OF 24W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE IS WITHIN 550 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
NEAR 51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA
LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN
52W AND 56W. NO CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR AND SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR WITHIN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
65W...MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OF T.S. FRED FROM 09N23W TO
08N30W TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N40W AND CONTINUES TO
10N48W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FRED AND
THE TRPCL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N82W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N93W WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 22N89W. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OFF THE S-SE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
16N W OF 78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OFF
THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. THE OTHER ARE OF CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRPCL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SEE TRPCL WAVES SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. NE TO E WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS OF
9 TO 11 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 69W AND 78W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE W
TODAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ISLAND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FRED EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
OVER N FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 76W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N48W SW TO 26N59W TO 24N68W AND ENHACES ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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