Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 272359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 2N16W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W ATLC AND
FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE W
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. AN BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO
INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
NEAR 25N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E AND NE THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN WED THROUGH
THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG 28N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W THEN ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
NE TIP OF NICARAGUA. A REMNANT SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 15N BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH
THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA WED NIGHT LATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO A
DYING FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DYING FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE W WILL PERSIST AS THE DYING FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO
HISPANIOLA WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE W TONIGHT THEN STALL
OVER THE AREA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC
LATER IN THE WEEK ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE W ATLC
AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N61W ALONG 25N67W THEN ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA
NEAR 20N75W. A DYING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH
32N59W ALONG 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND
THE DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS JUST N
OF THE AREA W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE
FRONTS IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042
MB HIGH N OF AZORES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N32W TO 21N31W AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING W NEAR 27N33W. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DYING FRONT OVERNIGHT. A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE W THROUGH WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS WED AND WED NIGHT
THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH THE W ATLC THU INTO FRI WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE FAR W
ATLC FRI EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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