Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 29N77W
TONIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC
SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE SUNDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N07W TO 04N25W TO 03N44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 35W AND
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW OVER NE TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM
THE LOW TO JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS OF 1500 UTC.
AS OF 1500 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDED OVER THE NW GULF FROM 30N94W
TO 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 29N92W TO 23N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE US HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF BASIN. THE COLD ADVECTION OVER WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF IS
MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM
30N84W TO 21N97W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MARCH EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND MERGE INTO A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N77W TO
21N84W TO 15N86W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS OF 1500
UTC A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1016 MB HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LOW. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW MAINLY N OF 15N INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG S OF 14N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST
E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 19N68W SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES
JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N63W TO 26N70W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NW
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 19N68W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING N OF THE LOW TO 26N68W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N56W IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE E OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N77W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND BECOME WRAPPED INTO THE
DEVELOPING LOW. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MERGE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP W OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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