316
AXNT20 KNHC 271632
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
along and north of the ITCZ to 07N. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is south of the ITCZ to 04S.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong pressure gradient between 1035 mb high pressure over New
England and lower pressure over the Great Plains and Mexico
provides for fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of Mexico.
In response to these prevailing winds, seas have built to 8-10 ft
in the Gulf waters north of 20N west of 91W where fetch is
maximized. Fetch is defined as the distance over which winds from
generally constant speed and direction build seas. Elsewhere,
seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds will continue
over much of the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak
near 10 ft in the NW and central Gulf today and Sun. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending west to east across Hispaniola and an
upper level trough over the western Atlantic are producing
scattered showers and tstorms across the eastern Greater Antilles
and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding have been
occurring in Hispaniola during the last week, and it is possible
that continued rains may result in localized flash flooding,
especially in hilly terrain and low-lying areas. Please refer to
bulletins from your local weather service agency for more details.

Strong NE winds were detected by satellite scatterometer this
morning within the Windward Passage and off the coast of SE Cuba.
Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, fresh trades prevail. Seas are 5-7
ft in these areas of fresh to strong winds. Elsewhere in the
basin, scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades. Seas are
3-5 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered off the New
England coast will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in
the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 9
ft during the period of strongest winds. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.
Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in
the NE Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N57W to 24N64W. Scattered showers
are along the trough. North and west of the trough, NE winds are
moderate to fresh, including across the Bahamas, Florida Straits,
and approaches to the Windward Passage. Within the Windward
Passage, winds are at strong speeds. These winds across the W
Atlantic waters provide for 5-7 ft seas north of 20N and west of
55W. 1014 mb low pressure is near 18N42W.The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is experiencing gentle to moderate trades and
4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move through the
eastern forecast waters this weekend before stalling and weakening
over the far southeastern waters late Sun through Mon night.
Northerly swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of 12
ft over the NE waters by Sun. Fresh to strong north to northeast
winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front tonight through Sun.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere into early next
week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected by midweek as
high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Mahoney