Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEPICTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND N OF 31N.
THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGION S OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING
BACK TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N37W TO 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALSO...MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E OF THIS...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO 09N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE
W OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION MERGES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND MOVES E ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENTERING
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N81W TO
32N69W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
31N. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N62W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N73W TO 32N59W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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