Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AT 29/0300 UTC IS NEAR 40.2N
56.6W...OR ABOUT 420 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 40 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 40N TO 42N BETWEEN 53W AND
55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 33W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHWARD
TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 17N71W-TO-PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N13W 8N18W 11N35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N35W TO 12N49W AND 9N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N98W CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES
FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 28N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 93W AND
103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO 27N81W
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SIDE...FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 17N71W-TO-PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.09 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N69W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 71W. THE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO 65W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHWARD
TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N64W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CENTER IS
REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CENTER
REACHES THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL RUN
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENDING A RIDGE TOWARD
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 TO 42
HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N69W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 71W. THE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N23W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N53W...TO 28N74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W
AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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