Tropical Weather Discussion
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229
AXNT20 KNHC 210603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale-force winds over the central Atlantic...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N56W to 20N67W. Gale-force
winds are noted north of 28N and within 120 nm southeast of the
front. Seas in this are are expected to reach 11 to 16 ft. These
conditions are expected to diminish by 21/0600 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Another area of gale-force winds will develop north of 27N and
west of 77W with seas to 12 ft by Sunday morning. These winds
will continue through the day. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Gale-force winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. Gale force winds will develop north of 25N and west of 92W
by early Sunday and prevail through the day. Seas in this area
will range between 8 to 11 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that
point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either side of
the ITCZ between 17W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Latest surface observations are reporting fog over the northwest
Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 90W. The fog will dissipate
in the late morning hours. Fair weather prevails elsewhere.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds prevailing
across the whole basin. Expect for a cold front to enter the
western Gulf on Saturday. Gale- force winds are expected to
develop behind the front. Please refer to the section above for
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of high pressure centered just north of Cuba extends
across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across most of the basin except north of Honduras south of
18N and west of 83W where fresh to strong southeasterly winds
prevail. A cold front was analyzed north of Puerto Rico along 20N
with isolated showers. A pre-frontal trough extends north of the
Virgin Islands from 21N59W to 19N64W with showers within 30 nm of
it. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect
over the Leeward Islands while the pre-frontal surface trough
moves east. The winds near Honduras will continue pulsing through
the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary approaches from the Gulf
of Mexico, then weakening by late Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails over the island with 10-15 northeast winds.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W.
A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N45W to
24N55W to 20N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
east of the front mainly north of 27N and west of 40W. Gale-force
winds also prevail SE of the front for a few more hours. Please
refer to the section above for details. A 1027 mb surface high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 32N27W with fair weather. Expect
over the next 24 hours for central Atlantic front to move slowly
east with convection mainly over the northern portion of it.
Another area of gale-force winds will develop over the west
Atlantic. See the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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