Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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