Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 43W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 320 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 145 NM E OF IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 40W. FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
LOUISIANA SW TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE
COAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF 85W
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO
23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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