Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TOWARD FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 22N IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND
94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W 25N97W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.THE CHANCE OF THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 21/1015 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND IN MADEIRA TO THE WEST
OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE
WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
16N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 8N30W 7N40W AND 10N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KBBF...
KGRY...AND KIPN.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS FORMED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT PERRY FLORIDA. FORT MYERS FLORIDA IS
REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EXTREME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS SOUTHERN
PANAMA NEAR 7N81W...AND BEYOND 8N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO...
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO A 68W/69W RIDGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT
ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN
EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24 HOURS AGO
HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
24N65W...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 250 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 21N74W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N69W 29N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 58W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W...TO
A WEAKENING 29N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W...TO 29N55W...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N55W...TO 25N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N
TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N
BETWEEN 43W AND 44W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N48W...ARE
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 20N43W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N
BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND
44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N
NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT REACHES 31N11W AT ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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