Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 73.5W
and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will
range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: IRVING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing
the Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 06N southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW
wind flow is to the south of the line 24N16W 18N40W 13N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front will drift into the Texas coastal waters
through the evening before stalling and moving back inland into
early Thu. Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will maintain a
ridge extending W across the Gulf coast states to produce fresh
return flow across most of the basin, except strong winds through
the Straits of Florida and across central portion of the Gulf. A
weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters Sat night and
stall there through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC... according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.77 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in
Curacao and in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.03 in St. Thomas in the
U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the
end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters
through Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force
winds off the coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will
weaken through the weekend into early next week, leading to
diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W Atlc ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thu then drift SW
and slowly weaken through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through
Thu. NNE swell will move through waters E of 65W through Fri
night. A weak cold front may move off the NE Florida coast early
next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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