Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231733

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N51W to
10N54W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough and is embedded within
a surge of moisture. Wave is at the base of a narrow upper
trough which is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 10N-12N between 54W-56W.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa to the coast near 8N13W
where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N39W 8N46W to 10N49W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 3N-8N between 11W-20W, from 3N-12N between 20W-36W, and
from 7N-10N between 5W-54W. A broad upper ridge extends
east/west across the Tropical Atlantic enhancing scattered
moderate with clusters of isolated strong convection from 10N-
17N between 38W-49W.



An upper ridge covers the Gulf this afternoon anchored in the
east Pacific region and extending an upper ridge axis across
south Mexico near Veracruz to over the CONUS near the lower
Mississippi Valley. A surface trough remains in the southwest
Gulf extending from 22N97W along 20N95W to 18N93W with scattered
showers southwest of the surface trough. A surface ridge is
dominates the remainder of the Gulf in the wake of the recent
frontal passage anchored by a 1029 mb high over Alabama with a
weaker 1023 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong subsidence and
dry, stable air covers the Gulf east of 90W. This is giving the
east Gulf with remarkably clear skies this afternoon. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds are over the west Gulf. The surface trough
over the southwest Gulf will linger through midweek. High
pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will be replaced by a
stronger surface ridge that will build southwest from the
eastern seaboard of the CONUS over the east Gulf beginning
Tuesday afternoon.


The deep layered trough over the west Atlantic extends south
into the northwest Caribbean north of 17N between 72W-83W
supporting a cold front that enters the basin across central
Cuba near 22N80W to over the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W.
Strong subsidence and dry, stable air are north of the front. A
remnant surface trough extends from the west Atlantic through
the Windward Passage to the east tip of Jamaica generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm
either side of the surface trough with isolated showers within
120 nm of a line from 12N82W to 18N77W. Upper level ridging
extends across Central America and into the Caribbean near
13N84W along 15N72W then northeast across Puerto Rico into the
central Atlantic. The monsoon trough is south of Panama in the
east Pacific region generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the southwest Caribbean south of 12N west
of 78W to inland over Parana into southeast Nicaragua. The
remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies this
afternoon. The cold front will drift southeast extending from
Hispaniola to northeast Honduras by Monday morning where it will
become stationary then dissipate through early next week. The
tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Tuesday night.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the island this
afternoon mainly west of 70W. This is due to lingering moisture
coupled with the close proximity of a remnant surface trough
enhancing orographic lifting. The cold front is expected to move
to over the island bringing an increase chance of showers and
thunderstorms as the cold front stalls across the island early
Monday. Lingering moisture will continue the chance of showers
into early next week.


A deep layered trough extends over the west Atlantic into the
northwest Caribbean covering the area west of 65W and supporting
a cold front that extends through 32N64W across the central
Bahama Islands then into the northwest Caribbean over central
Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated showers are possible along the
frontal boundary. A remnant surface trough extends from 26N62W
along 23N67W then into the Caribbean through the windward
Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
120 nm east of this surface trough. A surface ridge covers the
central Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high well north of the
discussion area. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near
32N10W through the Canary Islands along 26N26W to 28N38W. Little
moisture and thus limited shower activity is associated with
this front. The west Atlantic cold front will become stationary
from 32N58W 25N61W to Hispaniola near 20N70W by Monday morning.
The south portion of the front will dissipate early next week as
the north portion of the front transitions back to a cold front
midweek and a strong high pressure builds off the eastern CONUS.

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