Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 6N12W to 14N9W moving
west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb
trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75 NM
of the trough axis north of 6N to the coast of southwest Africa.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
2N41W to 9N40W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is
embedded within a weak low amplitude 700 mb trough and is along
the leading edge of a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any
convection in the vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the
tropical wave.

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 64W/65W south
of 10N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a weak
low amplitude 700 mb trough. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave that was in the southwest Caribbean has interacted
with the broad upper trough and the energy has been absorbed by
the upper trough and was dropped from the 25/0600 utc analysis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 6N18W to 5N21W where the
ITCZ begins and continues along 4N26W to just east of the
tropical wave near 6N40W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 5N-11N between 34W-53W. A
surface trough is north of Suriname South America extending
from 12N55W through a weak 1013 mb low near 8N55W to 7N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends
across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near Tuxpan to over the
southeast CONUS near the lower Mississippi Valley while an upper
trough covers the far east Gulf of Mexico across Florida into
the west Atlantic. This is giving the Gulf west to northwest
flow aloft. The upper ridge is advecting moisture across the far
west Gulf generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms
inland over Mexico and south Texas with scattered showers in the
Gulf waters from 24N-28N west of 95W. The remnants of the
seabreeze just west of the Florida peninsula is generating
isolated showers/thunderstorms from 23N-26N between 82W-85W.
Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
northeast Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. The surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. The southeast return flow will
reach strong winds in the northwest Gulf Friday and Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across central
Cuba over the west Caribbean covering the area west of 73W while
an upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser
Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder
of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over Cuba and
Jamaica between 75W-83W and scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms north of 17N across Hispaniola between
68W-74W and south of 13N to over South America between 59W-75W.
The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W through a
1010 mb low near 10N78W to across Costa Rica near 9N82W into the
east Pacific region. Scattered showers are from 10N-12N between
78W-81W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean will diminish by Friday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across
the island this morning. The upper trough currently over central
Cuba and the western Caribbean will broaden starting Friday
night as the low and surface trough in the west Atlantic shifts
westward. Lingering moisture and daytime heating could still
generate showers and possible thunderstorms through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024
mb high near 33N73W and extending a ridge axis across northeast
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N66W
through a weak 1016 mb low near 26N68W to 21N71W. The upper
trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
from over the Bahamas to Cuba between 72W-78W and scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 120 NM either
side of the surface trough. An upper ridge is to the east
extending from over South America across the Lesser Antilles and
into the west-central Atlantic along 23N64W to beyond 32N54W. A
second surface trough is east of the Leeward Islands extending
from 21N62W to 16N60W with possible isolated showers within 120
NM of the surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high
near 36N49W. The west Atlantic low/surface trough will move
slowly northwest and should be north of 31N by Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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