Tropical Weather Discussion
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030
AXNT20 KNHC 261112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 06N15W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W,
through the Equator along 20W, curving to 02S24W, to the Equator
along 36W, and to the Equator along 42W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 06N southward between 06W and 13W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 06N southward
from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow spans the
entire Gulf of Mexico. A trough, from 600 mb to 800 mb, is along
the Texas coast. A shortwave middle level-to-upper level trough is
in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken low
level clouds from 25N northward between the coast and 87W.

A surface ridge extends from Andros Island in the NW Bahamas,
beyond southern Louisiana.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, from 1 to 3 miles, from KBQX to KMZG along the
Texas coast.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: mist and haze, 3 to 5 miles, in the Deep South. haze and 5
miles in parts of the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. ALABAMA:
mist and 4 miles in Evergreen. FLORIDA: less than 1 mile with fog
in Perry.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N
northward from 69W westward. A middle level-to-upper level
trough passes through 32N63W to 27N64W to 22N65W, everything in
the Atlantic Ocean, to 18N61W in the Caribbean Sea, 13N61W, and
to Trinidad. A cold front passes through 32N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 25N73W. A surface trough is along 69W/70W from eastern
sections of the Dominican Republic to 27N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 22N between 63W and
70W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from
22N northward between 60W and 70W.

Other convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N to 14N
between 57W in the Atlantic Ocean and 63W in the SE corner of the
area. Rainshowers are possible elswhere between 60W and 64W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the
island. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the coastal
waters, to the NE of the Dominican Republic, from 21N70W into the
Mona Passage. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
surrounding coastal waters, from 15N to 20N between 63W and 74W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: mist and LIFR. La Romana: VFR.
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata:
VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that westerly wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. It is possible that slight
changes in the wind direction will lead to SW or NW wind flow
also. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 30 hours or
so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect cyclonic wind flow with
an inverted trough, during the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N28W, to
23N33W 14N46W and 09N53W. A surface trough passes through 32N24W
to 27N27W. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 06N northward between Africa and 40W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken
low level clouds, to the north of the line 12N60W 15N40W 21N20W
32N10W.

A cold front passes through 32N44W to 29N53W to 31N59W. A
stationary front continues from 31N59W beyond 32N60W. Rainshowers
are from 25N northward between 45W and 60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N to 26N
between 40W and 66W. A surface ridge is along 16N22W 16N42W 20N55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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