Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 03N, to
05N14W, to the Equator at 24W. The The ITCZ continues from the
Equator along 24W, to 03S24W. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward between 11W and
17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward
between 17W and South America.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center and
trough from West Texas to Mexico 24 hours ago, now pass through
Oklahoma and Texas, to Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward. Upper
level SW wind flow is present elsewhere. A middle level-to-upper
level ridge is along 76W/77W. A surface trough is along 29N88W
28N92W 28N95W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 26N northward between Florida and
90W. Upper level high clouds are curving anticyclonically, from
the SW corner of the area, across and beyond the SE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG and KBBF.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in the Deep South of Texas. a lot of LIFR/some IFR
from the middle Texas Gulf coast, to Galveston and Jasper, to the
Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities,
and to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR/some IFR, from Baton Rouge
southward. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR/some IFR from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg
southward. some areas have cleared from the IFR conditions
recently. ALABAMA: light rain from Evergreen to Dothan.
Florida: light rain from Apalachicola northwestward into the
Florida Panhandle. MVFR in Perry, in the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area, and Sarasota.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward from 50W westward. A deep layer trough is along 55W/56W
from 23N northward. A cold front passes through 32N48W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N55W and 20N68W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from
28N northward between 43W and 51W. widely scattered moderate
elsewhere from 25N northward between 40W and 55W. rainshowers are
possible within 120 nm on either side of 25N55W 20N68W, and
elsewhere to the NW of the cold front.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans
the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the
NW corner, across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South
America into the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in
areas of broken low level clouds, primarily from 17N southward
from 66W eastward, and elsewhere from 70W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 18/0000
UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: only a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. NE wind flow
is present from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible inland, and in
the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an
anticyclonic circulation center will be in the Windward Passage at
the beginning of the 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic
center will move on top of Hispaniola after the first 12 hours,
and it will spread anticyclonic wind flow across the area during
the rest of day one. The anticyclonic circulation center
eventually will move into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea by
the end of the 48-hour forecast period. SW wind flow will move
across the area during most of day two. Expect NW-to-W wind flow
at the end of day two, with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow, with a ridge, will move
across the area during day one. expect northerly wind flow during
day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 30N11W to the
Canary Islands, to a 23N26W cyclonic circulation center, to
12N32W, and 05N39W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N northward between 26W and 60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N32W, to 27N38W, 22N46W, to
19N60W, to the coastal waters that are to the south of Hispaniola.
A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N75W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest
of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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