Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A warning was issued for gale-force winds for the area that is
called AGADIR, by Meteo-France, in its forecast that was valid
until 24/0000 UTC. The warning for the area of AGADIR no longer
exists in the latest forecast, whose valid time is 24/1200 UTC.
A dissipating cold front is along 31N/32N, through Morocco, and
then between 10W and 21W, until 34N25W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N16W and 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from
04N19W, to 02N27W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 04S37W near
the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 07N from 34W eastward. Scattered
to numerous strong from the Equator southward between 42W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area.

A deep layer trough is in the western Atlantic Ocean, passing
through 74W/75W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes just to the west of
Bermuda, in the Atlantic Ocean, to 30N70W, to the Florida east
coast near 28N80W, across Florida and the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of SE Louisiana. A stationary front
continues from SE Louisiana northwestward. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate in the Atlantic Ocean
from 27N to 30N between 72W and the Florida east coast. Other
rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N62W 29N67W 27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022
mb high pressure center is near 28N91W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg and Laredo. LIFR in Hebbronville and Alice.
MVFR in Victoria and Bay City. LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur and
Jasper. MVFR in Sugar Land, in Conroe and Huntsville. LOUISIANA:
LIFR in the SW and S central parts of the coastal plains. MVFR in
parts of the SE coastal plains. from MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Apalachicola and Cross City. IFR at the Tampa
Executive Airport. MVFR in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N along 74W/75W in the
western Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same
Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible to the N of 16N between 60W and 70W,
to the south of 16N60W 14N73W 10N79W, and to the NW of the line
that runs from the Windward Passage to the coast of Panama near
09N80W. This precipitation is possible in scattered to broken low
level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana:
MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecasts for 250 MB and for 500 mb show that SW
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A
trough will be approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour
forecast time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that the first half of day one will consist of SW wind flow, and
that the second half of day one will consist of cyclonic wind flow
and the trough across the area. Expect cyclonic wind flow across
the area during all of day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes through 32N53W to 29N60W 25N67W, and to the SE
Bahamas near 22N72W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm on
either side of 19N69W at the coast of the Dominican Republic, to
24N63W 30N59W, and then from 30N northward between 46W and 63W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N13W to a 25N26W cyclonic
circulation center, to 20N27W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of
the 32N53W 22N72W warm front. A surface ridge passes through
32N38W 27N44W 24N47W 24N57W to 20N65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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