Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
7N30W TO 8N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 22N92W TO S MEXICO AT 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N WHERE FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED. 25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE S
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF. THUS THERE ARE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE
LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM SW OF JAMAICA AT
18N79W TO N COSTA RICA AT 11N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ISLAND SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. A LARGE 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N39W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 43W-47W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E
MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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