Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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314
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N
AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ
MAINLY W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO
21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A
TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO
23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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