Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along
15W/16W from 7N to inland over Africa moving west 10 to 15 kt
over the past 6 hours. The wave was relocated based on latest
scatterometer pass at 27/1120 UTC. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 12N as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 5N-10N between 11W-20W and from 14N-17N
between 27W-29W.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 42W
from 10N-18N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moderate
moisture north of 12N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection or shower activity.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 73W from
12N-22N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture north
of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No
associated deep convection. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 90 nm east and 120 nm west of the wave
axis north of 17N across the Greater Antilles to 23N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 15N18W 12N31W 8N41W to
7N47W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near
8N59W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are over the
Cape Verde Islands from 14N-18N between 23W-26W and from 4N-9N
between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An inverted upper trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon extending from the Yucatan peninsula to the lower
Mississippi Valley. An upper ridge extends across Mexico and
Texas to the west Gulf coast while a second upper ridge extends
from the west Atlantic to over Florida. This is a providing a
diffluent environment to generate scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N west of 91W to inland
over Louisiana and Texas with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf from 23N-27N between 81W-
87W including the Florida Keys. A surface trough is in the
southwest Gulf extending along 94W south of 23N to inland over
south Mexico enhancing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of line from 24N93W to the coast
of Mexico near 21N97W. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across central Florida to 28N92W. The surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. A thermal trough will move off
the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The inverted upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico covers the
west Caribbean west of 84W while an upper trough over the
central Atlantic extends south over the east Caribbean east of
72W. This is allowing the upper ridge over the west Atlantic to
extend south over the central Caribbean between the upper
troughs. This scenario is providing a diffluent environment
across the north Caribbean to generate clusters of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N west of 80W to
over Cuba and the northeast Yucatan peninsula including the
Yucatan Channel. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia south
of Panama generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 14N west of 82W and south of 10N west of
79W to inland over Panama to Nicaragua. The tight pressure
gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. The
tropical wave will move into the west Caribbean Thursday, then
over Central America Thursday night. The next tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms developing across
the island this afternoon. The tropical wave will move away from
the island tonight. Isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge anchored north of the discussion area near 33N72W
dominates the west Atlantic and extends south over the Central
Caribbean. The activity over the south Bahama islands to over
east Cuba is associated with the tropical wave moving through
the central Caribbean. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb
high near 27N70W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper trough over the central Atlantic extends south to over
the east Caribbean and is supporting a stationary front to
31N54W where it dissipates along 28N58W to 27N63W. Isolated
showers and possible thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the
front. The upper level scenario is proving a diffluent
environment to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 27N-31N between 66W-71W. A surface ridge
dominates the east Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high north-
northeast of the Azores. West Atlantic surface ridge will
persist into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off
the north coast of Hispaniola each evening through the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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