Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ON THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND A 1026 MB HIGH
OVER GEORGIA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS
THE BASIN SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS EAST OF 90W
ARE FROM THE NE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF 90W...WINDS
ARE FROM THE E-SE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ALABAMA SW TO CORPUS
CHRISTI EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING AND EXITING THE
BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING FROM
ANDROS TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW
TO 12N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN
UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH TAIL REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N65W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH TAIL REACHING WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT AHEAD OF IT THAT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N AND WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N40W
TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
E OF ITS AXIS S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THU MORNING HOURS. THE TAIL OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY-STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRI
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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