Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220452
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 22  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0436 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall: A surface low
pressure center and a cold front are forming along the Texas
coast this evening. The low pressure is forecast to track
northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern
U.S. Fri night and Sat. Winds will expand in coverage ahead of
the cold front that will trail from the low over the western
waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun.
Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and
central zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong
to near gale NW to N winds and rough seas will follow this
front. Additionally, widespread showers and strong
thunderstorms, some potentially severe, on Fri and Sat will
impact southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and nearby waters.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories from the
local Weather Service Offices that are in the expected heavy
rainfall impact areas for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N30W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 200 nm of either side of the
Monsoon Trough, west of 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the upcoming
heavy rain event.

The pressure gradient between the lower pressures over
southeastern Texas and higher pressure over the western Atlantic
is supporting fresh to strong SE winds west of 90W and N of 27N
and over the offshore waters of the Yucatan Peninsula with
moderate seas over these waters. A surface trough with an
embedded 1010 mb low pressure near 26N90W crosses the Gulf
waters from east to west, from near Tampa, FL to the offshore
waters of Galveston, Texas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed along the trough and low pressure N of
24N. Winds and seas may be higher within this convection.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mainly easterly winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, developing low pressure along the coast of
Texas is forecast to track E-NE from the NW Gulf of Mexico to
inland across the southeastern U.S. tonight through Sat. The
trailing cold front will reach from SW Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, from the Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz, Mexico Sat morning, and exit the basin to the SE late
Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are
forecast ahead of the front Fri, with fresh to strong northerly
winds behind it. Widespread showers and strong thunderstorms,
some potentially severe, are expected E through SE of the low
center and the cold front. Mariners should monitor these
hazardous marine conditions and adjust your routes accordingly.
High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift
eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for
fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western
Gulf. These southerly winds will shift to the central and
eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night as a cold front moves enters the
western Gulf early Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends southward
to over the extreme northern Caribbean Sea. Fresh trades are
ongoing in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage,
with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are moderate in the
central and SW basin, with slight seas in the eastern and NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the W Atlantic along
30N will shift E and dissipate through Fri as low pressure moves
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds will develop in the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
Channel by early Fri as this low pressure and its attendant cold
front reach the central Gulf of Mexico. This front will then
reach the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean on
Sat afternoon, extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
on Sun, then stall and dissipate by Mon. Fresh to strong SE
winds will develop over the western Caribbean late Mon through
Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of
Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the upcoming
western Atlantic Gale warning and heavy rain event.

A cold front extends from near 31N52W southwestward to 22N59W,
where it transitions to a decaying stationary front to the
northern coast of Dominican Republic. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed moving eastward ahead and along the
front to 50W and north of 27N. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds
are occurring behind of the front to 66W, mainly north of 20N.
Moderate seas are noted over these waters. Broad high pressure
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic west of the
front, along with moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas.

A strong 1035 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues
to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE to E
winds north of 17N and east of 36W. Rough seas are found over
these waters. Moderate trades and moderate seas are observed
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is centered just SW of
Bermuda, and will move E and dissipate through late Fri. A
stationary front extends from 25N55W to northern Hispaniola and
will drift N Fri through Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds
will develop E of Florida on Fri, as low pressure tracks
northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and inland across the
southeastern U.S. Fri night. Strong southerly winds will expand
in coverage over the western waters, ahead of a cold front,
increasing to gale-force across the northern waters Fri evening
through Sun. The front will reach from near 31N72W to eastern
Cuba on Sun morning, and from 31N70W to the Windward Passage by
Mon morning. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to
N swell will follow this front.

$$
KRV


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