Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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