Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 7N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 4N31W to 7N48W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 120/150 nm of a line from 5N13W to 7N24W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120/150 nm of a line from 4N25W to 5N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough inland over the eastern CONUS is supporting a
cold front that extends from the west Atlantic into the
northeast Gulf across Florida between Jacksonville and just
north of Cedar Key to 27N88W where it becomes stationary along
27N95W to the coast near Texas/Mexico border. Scattered showers
cover the west gulf south of 25N west of 90W. A surface ridge
anchored over southeast Missouri by a 1032 mb high is
reinforcing the push of the frontal boundary currently in the
Gulf. The front will reach from the southeast Gulf to south
Texas/northeast Mexico where it will weaken Sunday. Strong
southerly surface flow will develop across the west Gulf Sunday
night then spread eastward to the central Gulf through the
first of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 13N81W along 13N78W to off the
coast of Colombia near 11N76W generating scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 14N to the coast of
Venezuela, inland over north Colombia, and to the surface
between 67W-79W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 10N to the surface trough west of 80W to
inland over Colombia. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will
shift northeast diminishing trade winds across the basin
tonight. Another surface ridge will trail a cold front as it
moves across the west Atlantic tonight through the first of next
week. This will produce fresh to strong northeast winds south
of Cuba and the Windward Passage starting Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are relatively clear across the island this afternoon.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today and Sunday. The first of the next week, a front will
approach the island increasing the chances of more shower
activity.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough is moving into the northwest Atlantic supporting
a cold front that enters the region near 32N78W then extends
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near Jacksonville A
surface trough precedes the front extending from 32N77.5W along
30N80W to over Florida near West Palm Beach. Scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the
surface trough. A weak surface ridge covers the remainder of the
west Atlantic north of 22N west of 55W anchored by a 1022 mb
high near 32N64W. An upper trough in the central Atlantic is
supporting a stationary front entering the central Atlantic near
32N40W and extends along 30N46W 21N56W to 20N65W. Isolated
showers are possible within 45 nm of the stationary front. An
upper ridge to the east is providing difflunce aloft to generate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-32N
between 40W-44W. In the east Atlantic is a small 1012 mb low
near 23N40W with a surface trough extending northeast along
25N32W to 24N27W. An upper low is centered near 24N32W
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 23N-26N between 27W-32W. A second surface trough and low
are to the south extending from 18N38W through a 1011 mb low
near 17N41W to 11N49W with isolated showers within 45 nm of the
surface trough. The west Atlantic cold front reach from Bermuda
across the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Sunday
and from 32N60W 25N65W to the central Bahamas Monday. Strong
high pressure behind this front will give the Bahamas fresh to
strong northeast winds Monday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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