Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 162356

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico.
As of 2100 UTC, the front extends from near 30N87W to 25N98W.
Gusty winds to gale-force are noted behind the front along the
coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly move
southeast exiting the area early on Wednesday. Cold arctic
offshore northerly flow behind the front will bring near gale-
force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the northwest
Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds near Tampico and
Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A Gale Warning is in
effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter storm
warnings have been issued along the northern Gulf states.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W to
03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N32W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the
ITCZ between 35W-50W.



A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See the
Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the
remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken
tonight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted over
the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per scatterometer
data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere ahead
of the front.


A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin
extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is noted along and west of the front affecting Central
America and central and western Cuba. Patches of low-level
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen across the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front,
and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary,
with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by tomorrow
morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will
drift westward on Wednesday, keeping showers possible over
Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong north winds
along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this
evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse
near the NW Colombia coast each night through Saturday night.
Large northeast swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the
tropical Atlantic waters this evening.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island
due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north
of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models
show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the
work week as a cold front approaches from the west.


A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to
22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are still noted
in the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish
today as the front begins to weaken. To the east, a weak 1018 mb
low is centered near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to
31N64W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these
features. Scattered moderate convection has developed to the north
of 27N between 57W-63W ahead of a cold front to the north of the
area. An upper level low is reflected at the surface as a trough
that extends from 31N44W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the trough between 39W-45W. The trough will drift
westward over the next 24 hours while the strong high pressure
will move eastward. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb located near
Azores at 40N30W dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa.
A strong cold front will move off the southeast United States
coast on Wednesday, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to
the Windward Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will bring strong northerly winds and
building seas over the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday.

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