Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N24W
4N36W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W
AND 28W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 30W. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 30W. SOME OF IT CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS
INLAND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...SET TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO GUATEMALA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXTH...KVBS...

KGBK...KGRY HAS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG...KSPR HAS VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KIPN HAS CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...KMIS HAS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE
OR LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND PATCHES OF
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
THE SAME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT ENDS UP IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT NEAR 14N56W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W
AND 81W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
22N44W AND 16N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N40W 26N50W 25N60W 25N68W AND
26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO 30N71W AND BEYOND
32N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 31N35W 28N38W 23N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 28N65W...AND TO 26N67W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N32W 25N60W 25N68W 32N70W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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