Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 13N20W TO 13N25W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 28W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 18N39W AND
06N42W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N107W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N34W TO 29N42W...TO 26N57W...THROUGH 23N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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