092
AXNT20 KNHC 071749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 07N17W to 03N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is present south of 04N and west of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge continues to influence the Gulf of
Mexico and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh
ESE winds are noted off northern Yucatan. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Moderate SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent
over much of the remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle
winds and slight seas are found in the north of 26N and east of
85W.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central
Mexico into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in
mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night.
Locally strong winds are likely to pulse nightly through late week
off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off
the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, shift
southeast, then slow down and weaken further as extends from South
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic
across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean and continues to enhance
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Greater Antilles and surrounding Atlantic waters S of 23N. The
trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the
area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for
convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent
lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to
bring a threat of flooding to the islands. See local weather
advisories for more information. Convection is also present in the
SW Caribbean, especially within 120 nm of central Panama.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic, near Bermuda,
supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Mainly
moderate winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the
south-central and SE Caribbean through late week. Meanwhile,
expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds mainly at night across
the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night, between the high pressure
and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1019 mb high pressure
system east of Bermuda. The aforementioned upper-level trough
enhances the development of convection south of 23N. Dry
conditions are generally found elsewhere. Moderate easterly
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident south of 27N and west of
50W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N27W to 19N45W, then
continues as a shear line to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to
fresh W-NW winds and seas of 7-11 ft are found west of the cold
front to 40W and north of 26N. The highest seas are occurring
near 31N46W. A broad subtropical ridge centered off NW Spain
dominates the rest of the basin. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa results in
fresh to locally strong NE winds north of 22N and east of 20W.
Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending east to west
along roughly 29N is supporting moderate to fresh E winds south
of 23N today. These winds will diminish as the ridge shifts
eastward into late week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with
low pressure well north of the region over the north central
Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 58W
today. Looking ahead, expect fresh SW winds off northeast Florida
starting Wed night ahead of a cold front moving off the
Carolinas.


$$
Mora