Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 172345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 17/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 291 nm southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 31.5N 71.8W, moving north at
8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 31N-33N between 71W-73W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 30N-35N between 67W-74W. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of
days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 17/2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee is located about 790 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.2N 37.3W, moving west at 7
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between 35W-38W. Lee
will continue weakening as it moves west through the next 24
hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

At 17/2100 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located about 121 nm east-
northeast of Barbados near 13.8N 57.5W, moving west-northwest at
13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 12N-15N between 57W-59W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 11N-17N between 51W-60W. Hurricane
warnings have been issued for several islands in the Leeward
Islands. Maria is forecast to further intensify over the next 48
hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 72W
south of 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered
scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW Venezuela.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N87W to 13N88W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
region of strong moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over Central America from Honduras
to Panama.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
09N20W to 07N24W to 09N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-10N between 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico. 10 kt easterly winds are
over the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over
the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf
with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.
Expect scattered showers over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next
24 hours mostly due to a tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in
the Pacific reaches the northwest coast of Colombia and is
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the
southwest Caribbean south of 13N. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the central
Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west
with convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to impact the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico within the next 72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island.
Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours over
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Lee and Hurricane Maria. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 26N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 35W-39W. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 34N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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