Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
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WTNT34 KNHC 222031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 91.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO
A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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