Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000 FONT15 KNHC 021432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 6 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LA PESCO MX 34 19 32(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) LA PESCO MX 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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