National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
AGNT40 KWNM 150019
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
818 PM EDT FRI 14 JUN 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

UPDATE:

SUMMARY...A LOW PRES CNTR ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE GEORGES BANK
AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OVERNITE AND SAT. A COLD FNT ASCD
WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY EXTNDS SW ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN NT2
WTRS...BUT WILL PASS E OF THESE AREAS OVERNITE. ASCAT HI-RES AND
OSCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM EARLER TODAY WERE SHOWING MARG GALES IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
IS BEING INDICATED BY THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF MDLS. TROFNG WILL
MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 WTRS OVERNITE INTO SAT...AS RDG BLDS SE
OVER THE NT2 WTRS. THE RDG WILL BLD OVER THE NT1 WTRS SAT
NITE...THEN SHIFT E OF THE OFSHR AREAS SUN INTO SUN NITE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS E OVER THE NT1 WTRS SUN NITE INTO EARLY
MON...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATER MON. ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL
MOVE E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS TUE...THEN STALL ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED. A LOW IS EXPCTD TO DVLP ALG THE FNT OFF
THE MID ATLC CST TUE...THEN PASS E OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS LATER
TUE INTO EARLY WED. RDG WILL MOVE E INTO THE WTRS N OF THE FNT
ON WED.

MODELS...18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT INTO EARLY
TUE...SO WILL JUST USE THE 18Z GFS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z
UKMET IS SLOWER AND WKR DURING THE FCST PRD...AND IS NOT A
PREFERRED MDL SOLN. 12Z GEM CONCENTRATES THE MAIN ENERGY MUCH
FARTHER N THAN OTHER MDLS ON TUE AND WED. 12Z GEM/NOGAPS DO NOT
HAVE A LOW MOVG ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TUE INTO WED. 18Z GFS DOES
HAVE A LOW TRACKING OVER THE OFSHR WTRS TUE INTO WED...BUT IT IS
MUCH STGR/SLOWER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE 18Z GEFS MEAN AND THE
12Z ECWMF...SO IT IS ALSO NOT A PREFERRED MDL SOLN FOR LATER TUE
AND WED. WILL BE FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF FOR LATER TUE AND WED
BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE AND CONSISTENT MDL
ATTM...AND ALSO SINCE IT HAS GUD SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z UKMET OVER
THIS TIMEFRAME.

SEAS...WILL BE FAVORING THE 18Z MULTIGRID WW3 INTO EARLY
TUE...THEN FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR LATER TUE AND
WED...DUE TO REASONS NOTED ABV IN THE MODELS SECTION.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

PREV DISCUSSION:

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH
SOME EMBEDDED SHRTWVS...AS NOTED IN THE CRRNT TRENDS FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
THROUGH SUN THEN MORE W TO E ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATE SUN
INTO WED...THEN BY WED NEED TO WATCH FOR A STGR AND MORE
PREVAILING MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN ATLC. AT THIS TIME
GOING MORE WITH A BROAD TRENDS IN THE MDLS WITH THE GFS IN THE
LEAD.

AT THE SFC...FNT WITH ASSOCD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E. THE
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE AIRMASS AND LTNG INTENSITY SHOWING THIS
EASTWARD MOVEMNT. IN GOING WITH THIS BROAD CONSENSUS WILL HAVE
THE STGR WINDS MOVING E OF THE OFSHR MNLY E OF 65W.

AS FOR SEAS...GIVEN THE BROAD CONSISTENCY IN THE PATTERN OVER
THE WRN ATLC WILL BE LEANING TWD THE MWW3 WAVE MDL THROUGH MON
AND THEN BLENDING TWD THE EUROPEAN WAVE MDL INTO WED.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE.
.GEORGES BANK...NONE.
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...NONE.
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/MCRANDAL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.