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000
AGNT40 KWNM 171347
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EDT MON 17 JUN 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

A LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A LOW PRES CENTER OVER NEW
BRUNSWICK SW ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST
AND INLAND OVER SE VA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SE
NT2 WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WERE S TO SW 5 TO 15 KT S OF
HATTERAS CANYON...SW 15 TO 25 KT N OF HATTERAS CANYON TO 40N AND
E OF 1000 FM AND SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WERE 3 TO 8
FT WITH THE HIGHEST 5 TO 8 FT OVER GEORGES BANK AND NE NT2.

A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE NT2 WATERS THU.

FOR THE UPDATE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. THE 06Z
GFS HAS INC WINDS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE ALONG
THE FRONT WED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20 TO 25 KT IN VCNTY OF THE LOW
AND 30 KT IN FAR ERN WATERS. THE 00Z MODELS ARE WEAKER SO WILL
WAIT FOR AFT RUNS TO SEE IF GFS IS CONSISTENT AND OTHER MODELS
FOLLOW WITH A STRONGER LOW. THE SEAS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBS.

--------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE FAR S
NT2 WATERS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE. A WEAK TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0220Z
WITH DECENT COVERAGE OVER THE NT2 WATERS INDICATE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF BALT CANYON TO HAGUE WATERS AND
BALT TO HATTERAS CANYON WITH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 12Z
UKMET/ECMWF FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIME FRAME. NO WARNING
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING WELL BELOW GALE THRESHOLD. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
SIGNIFICANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH ALL
THE MODELS ARE NOW REASONABLY CLOSE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
AND ACROSS THE WATERS WED AND THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL NT2
WATERS AS LOW PRES MOVES NE ALONG THE FRONT. WILL LIKELY GO
CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS SINCE IT IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z
UKMET...HOWEVER WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION AFTER VIEWING 00Z
ECMWF.

SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE OBSERVED
SEAS CONTINUED TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MULTI-GRID NWW3 WITH
OBSERVED VALUES WITHIN A FT OF THE MODEL. WILL PLAN ON GOING
CLOSE TO THE NNW3 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE.
.GEORGES BANK...NONE.
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...NONE.
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
$$

.FORECASTER OSZAJCA/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.