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000
AGNT40 KWNM 161846
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT THU 16 MAY 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

14Z AND 15Z METOP-A AND -B HI RES ASCAT OVERPASSES RETURNED SW
GALES OVER SERN BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE WATERS. BASED ON LATEST
13KM RAP WINDS...WILL ALLOW THIS GLW TO EXPIRE WITH NEXT NT2
ISSUANCE. 12Z MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48HRS.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER NRN MID ATLC WATERS SHUD WEAKEN...AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY SECONDARY COLD FRONT MVG OFFSHORE NEW ENGL
TNGT. MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRNT SHUD
STALL INVOF OR JUST S OF HATTERAS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. WILL BE
USING 17Z RAP WINDS...THEN 12Z GFS 10M WINDS LOOK REASONABLE
THEREAFTER THRU SAT. BY SAT NGT MDLS INDICATE THAT FRNT SHUD
BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRNT. ALTHO PAST FEW RUNS OF GFS HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT TOWARD WEAKER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...12Z
GFS STILL APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE WITH E TO SE WINDS POLEWARD OF
FRONT MAINLY NRN MID ATLC WATERS SUN INTO MON...UP TO 30 TO 35
KT BNDRY LAYER WINDS. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ECMWF WHICH IS BETTER
SUPPORTED BY 12Z UKMET... RESULTING IN WINDS UP TO 25 KT LIKE IN
PREVIOUS NT1/NT2 FORECASTS. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE
AS WARM FRNT PASSES ENE THRU NEW ENGL WATERS...MDLS BRING YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NEW ENGL COAST. 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT S TO SW WINDS SHUD INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KT AGAIN N OF HATTERAS CNYN.

NOAA BUOY 44017 REPORTED 8 FT AT 18Z...A COUPLE FT HIER THAN THE
12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III. ELSEWHERE 12Z MWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE
WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST W ATLC SHIP/BUOY OBS. WITH PREFERENCE
FOR ECMWF SAT NGT THRU TUE...AM FAVORING ECMWF WAVE MDL...OR AT
LEAST A HEAVILY WEIGHTED ECMWF WV MDL BLEND WITH MWW3. RESULT
WILL BE LOWER SIG WV HGTS OVER WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THOSE SHOWN BY MWW3.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL...N/A.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE.
.GEORGES BANK...NONE.
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...NONE.
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
$$

.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.