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FXUS61 KBGM 050553
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
153 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers across the region will end late today or this evening.
On Monday high pressure builds in with dry weather that lasts
into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will bring additional
showers from Wednesday through the end of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1230 am update...

Sped up timing on showers and increased pops to above 90
percent. Increased sky cover.

930 PM Update...

Light rain showers have expanded into central NY and the
Western Catskills region NY with more concentrated showers over
northeast PA. Timing of these showers remains on track with the
previous forecast. Otherwise bumped up sky grids to reflect
satellite imagery and adjusted temperatures/dewpoints with
current observations.

630 PM Update...

Rain showers have gradually moved into northeast PA this
evening. Therefore slightly increased Pops over northeast PA
using a blend of, NAMNest, HRRR, current radar, and the official
forecast. Showers continue to push into the rest of the region
within the next few hours. Otherwise adjusted temperatures and
dew points using a blend of current obs and the forecast. No
other changes were needed at this time.

330 PM Update...

A south to southeasterly flow will allow
moisture to be lifted along a warm front to our southwest
leading to the development of widespread showers tonight. These
showers should continue most of Sunday before the primary cold
front moves through Sunday night. In terms of rainfall most
locations should get around a half inch. Localized terrain
enhancements are possible north of the NY Thruway with the
rainfall allowing for some locations to see an inch or so.

Temperatures tonight should be able to fall to around 50 even with
the clouds and showers but then struggle to rise much on Sunday.
Temperatures then look rather steady or perhaps rise slightly in the
50`s Sunday night with a weak LLJ ahead of the primary cold
front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

A weak surface trough will slowly exit the region to the east
Monday morning. Lingering showers are expected to remain across
the Twin Tiers into the early afternoon hours, with a possible
rumble of thunder east of I-81 in NEPA. A ridge of high pressure
over the north central US will amplify Monday morning,
generating a surface high over the Great Lakes. This will slide
eastward during the day Monday, bringing NW flow and dry air
into the region. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

High pressure overhead Monday night will bring, mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies and very light to calm winds. This will be a
nice setup for radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into
the low to mid 40s. Currently not seeing any frost for our
growing zones, but we will have to monitor this as we get
closer.

Tuesday will be a wonderfully pleasant spring day as the ridge
and accompanying surface high moves overhead, bringing dry
weather and mostly sunny skies. Winds shift to WSW during the
afternoon, allowing some warmer temps to push into the Twin
Tiers. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s here, with low to
mid 70s to the north.

Tuesday night will not be as cool as the night before as SW
winds advect in a warm, moist airmass accompanied by increased
cloudiness. Temps will fall into the mid 50s for most, with
upper 50s in the Wyoming Valley and upper 40s in the Tug Hill
and Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM Update...

The nice, dry weather does not stick around for long as a
positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the eastern
US, pushing shortwave after shortwave through the region during
this period.

The first shortwave will push through Wednesday, bringing in a
warm front during the morning hours and scattered rain showers
to the region. Guidance is showing very low chances( <20%) of
CAPE reaching 500 j/kg across the Twin Tiers during the
afternoon. Rain showers will continue through the afternoon,
with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm over NEPA.

The upper level trough will drift eastward through the end of
the week, pushing multiple shortwaves and associated rain
showers through the area Thursday through Sunday. The upper
level trough will move overhead Friday, keeping temps cool for
the weekend as a Canadian airmass slides in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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140 AM Update...

Rain showers have moved north to all of the sites now. SYR/RME
are still VFR but should fall to MVFR cigs by 08z, then to fuel
alternate by 10z. RME will fall to IFR cig and MVFR vsby around
14z. SYR falls to IFR cig around 01z as the rain ends.

The other sites are all MVFR fuel alternate. IFR cigs by 08z at
BGM/AVP and 09z at ELM and 13z at ITH. IFR continues through
this evening despite rain ending around 00z.

Southeast winds mostly at 5 to 10 kts early this morning except
ITH/BGM 10 gust 20. During the day most sites 10 gust 20 kts
except AVP/ELM at 5 to 10 kts still.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight...Widespread IFR to even LIFR restrictions
continue areawide.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...ES/MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...TAC