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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM UPDATE... A SFC COLD FRONT...DRAPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY EARLY
THIS MRNG...SHOULD PUSH SWD TDY. AT THE SAME TIME...EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSES IN THE MID TO UPR-LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL TRAVERSE
THE RGN FROM W TO E. FORCED LIFT FROM THESE SYSTEMS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MARGINALLY ADEQUATE LOW-LVL MOISTURE (SFC DEW PTS FROM THE
MID 50S-LWR 60S)...TO BRING SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ACRS CNY/NE PA.

SHWRS ARE FAIRLY ISOLD IN COVERAGE ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH ABT MIDDAY. THIS AFTN (17-21Z)...OUR CONVECTION-
ALLOWING HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A LN OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DVLP NEAR THE PA/NY LN...THEN PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE THIS AFTN IN OUR
SRN ZNS...THIS IS NOT ALTOGETHER UNREASONABLE...AND WE`VE GONE AHD
AND INCLUDED A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW (3-4 HRS) OF LKLY/NUM POPS FOR
OUR NE PA ZNS AND SULLIVAN NY. GIVEN PROGGED DEEP-LYRD SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KT THIS AFTN...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ORGANIZE (ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTAB)...AND WE`VE THUS ADDED MENTION
OF STG GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL...AND ALSO A MENTION IN THE HWO.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF POST-FRNTL CLDNS EARLY
THIS MRNG ACRS SRN ONT...LK ONT...AND FAR NRN NY. WE EXPECT SOME
OF THIS LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND ASSOCD CLOUD MASS TO BLEED SWD INTO
CNY TDY BEHIND THE FRNT...SPCLY OUR NRN ZNS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTN...WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING FOR OUR NRN/WRN ZNS...AS A
BETTER DRY ADVECTION PUSH BEGINS ABT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA TDY FOR NRN SXNS
OF THE FA...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR N TO S TEMP GRADIENT BY AFTN. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LWR 80S IN PARTS OF NE PA...TO THE UPR
60S OR LWR 70S IN SXNS OF THE NRN FINGER LKS...WRN MOHAWK
VLY...AND SRN TUG HILL AREAS OF NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE... AS THE ABV MENTIONED COLD FRNT PUSHES WELL TO OUR S
AND E TNT...A DRIER AMS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE N AND NW...LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVE...WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUD DEBRIS STILL
PREVAILS AT THAT TIME. DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...AND SOME AREAS
HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL ERLYR IN THE AFTN...FOG LOOKS LIKE A
NON-ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A DECENT N-NE BLYR FLOW ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH
STG LOW-LVL DRY ADVECTION.

WED-THU LOOK VERY QUIET...WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH IN
CONTROL...UNDERNEATH BLDG HTS ALOFT...LEADING TO MAINLY SKC. TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY COOL WED (HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S)...BUT SHOULD BEGIN A MODERATING TREND ON THU (HIGHS IN THE
70S-LWR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO CHGS MADE TO MED RNG FCST. THERE ARE SIG DIFFS
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/EURO OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE FCST AREA
CONCERNING TIMING OF S/WV`S TOPPING THE GTLAKES RDG. GFS WOULD
IMPLY WARMER MAXES THAN CRNTLY INDICATED...BUT EURO INDICATES
STRONGER S/WV`S MOVG OVER THE RDG KEEPING UPR LVL HGTS LOWER.
TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS THE MAIN FCST
PRBLM WITH GFS SUGGESTING SAT COULD BE DRY WHILE THE EURO SHOWS
MCS POTNL. GIVEN THESE DIFFS NO CHGS WERE MADE TO THE MED RNG
FCST. PREV BLO...

BRIEF DISC DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX...SFC HIPRES IN CNTRL AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
SHRT WVS DROPPING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND STORMS
SAT NGT AND SUN. SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IS XPCTD WITH ABV NRML OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RDG BLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WORKING SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THROUGH AROUND 20Z... AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. ALL
AREAS WILL BE VFR BY 22Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW-NE AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THEN NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK... WED NGT THRU SAT...PRIMARILY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE