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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
620 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
545 AM UPDATE... A BAND OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CONTS TO MARCH ACRS
THE CWA ATTM...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH AN UPR-LVL WAVE. WE EXPECT SHWRS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THROUGH 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS AFTN.

ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE RESIDENT TDY OVER
THE NERN STATES...AHD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT...A FEW BRKS OF SUN ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE EARLY AND MID-AFTN HRS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ENUF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY...AND SPCLY THIS EVE...AS THE FRNT
ITSELF APPRCHS. THE LATEST RAP/WRF/GFS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...ALG WITH IMPROVING
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...AND SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT. THUS...ORGANIZED
LINEAR FEATURES SEEM PLAUSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
555 AM UPDATE... OUR MODEL SUITE CONTS TO TREND SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL TROUGH TO IMPACT THE RGN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

POST-FRNTL SHWRS HAVE BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN OUR FCST FOR
FRI...ALG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THIS
REGARD. IN FACT...READINGS FRI LIKELY WILL HOLD ABT STEADY IN THE
LWR-MID 50S...AND MAY EVEN EDGE DOWNWARD A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

WE`VE NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT FOR FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY IN OUR ERN
ZNS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
MOISTURE/FORCED LIFT...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT A CLOSER UPR-LVL
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ALG THE COAST AT LEAST INTO SAT.

ALTHOUGH DRYING/CLEARING SKIES NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO OCCUR...WE
STILL ANTICIPATE THAT SOME CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WRN ZNS
BY SAT/SAT EVE. THUS...PRIND ARE THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDS WILL BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTH
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLOUDIER COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
STILL EXPECT STEADY IMPROVEMENT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GFS/ECMWF COOLER TREND...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MSE
AVIATION...MSE