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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
VALLEY FOG WILL BE COMMON AGAIN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 10. A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1015 AM UPDATE...
INTERESTING FCST SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION TODAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE AREA IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. EARLY MORNING RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL NY ZONES. LATEST RUC
MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE ARE ALREADY SHOWING A
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS OF OVER 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS HR. THAT SAID...12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS THE HIGHLY
IDENTIFIABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SIGNAL WITH NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES EXTENDING THROUGH MID-LEVELS ATOP A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CAP. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT AND
THE ENTRANCE OF A 100+KT JET LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SET THE
STAGE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. QUICK LOOK
AT AREA OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE LOCALLY RUN
SEVERE WX CHECKLIST SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WX WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENCED ON LATEST 7.4 MICRON SOUNDER IMAGERY COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY SHEARED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. OBVIOUSLY A SITUATION THAT DEFINITELY
WARRANTS CONTINUED EVALUATION AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER TODAY. IN ANY EVENT FOR
THIS UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT LINE OF
THINKING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVED RAOB
DATA.

4 AM UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE RME AND SYR AREAS HAVE
DISSIPATED TO A SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER. NEXT SHORT WAVE IN MICHIGAN
WILL COME THROUGH UPSTATE NY THIS AFTN. CONTINUE TO BE IN BROAD
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. A SFC LOW OVER SE CANADA HAS MOVED LITTLE.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTN. THIS AND A UL
JET WILL HELP WITH DEEP LIFT. NAM AND GFS GREATLY DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY BUT ALL MODELS CREATE PRECIP. AGAIN TODAY DECENT
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE TSTORMS AND SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT
AGAIN. BEST FORCING IN NY SO NE PA SHOULD STAY DRY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT A SMALL LULL BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES IN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE IN THE NW FLOW. ALSO A SFC LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE NEAR COAST. SCT TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EVE THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY ONE LAST PUSH AS UL TROF DIGS SOME INTO THE AREA. NE PA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC WITH DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE. ALSO CLOSER
TO FRONT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET TO PROVIDE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. PROBABLY NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTH OF FRONT. WIND FIELDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND STILL
UNIDIRECTIONAL. TSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE.

TUESDAY EVE PRECIP WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. START OF A MULTI DAY
DRY AND SEASONABLE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MON UPDATE... NO CHGS WERE MADE TO THE LONG-TERM GRIDS THIS
MRNG...AS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS LAST EVENING`S GFS/EC
RUNS...HAVE BASICALLY KEPT CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER CYCLES.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...ALTHOUGH AN ERN PACIFIC/NWRN CONUS
TROUGH...CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...AND SERN CANADIAN/NERN STATES TROUGH
PATN SHOULD STILL GENERALLY HOLD THIS PD...THE ERN TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY RELAX...ALLOWING THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
TO EXPAND NEWD. THUS...RISING HGTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER
NY/PA...RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS (HIGHS FROM THE UPR
70S-MID 80S) THAN WE`VE BEEN SEEN RECENTLY. ALTHOUGH EC TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING SVRL DEGS BLO THAT OF THE MEX...THEY HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...NY/PA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE SFC HIGH...ALG WITH RISING HGTS ALOFT...FOR MOST OF THE PD. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY RAIN-FREE WX...FROM
THU INTO SAT. ONCE WE GET INTO LATTER PTNS OF NEXT WEEKEND...THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SUGGESTIONS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT AT LEAST DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT...AS A FRNTL BNDRY
BECOMES PERCHED JUST N AND W OF THE FA...AND SVRL UPR-LVL S/WVS
TRAVERSE THE RGN IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. OUR SCHC-CHC POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA LTR SAT-SUN STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...TODAY/S EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. WITH AN INVERTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEEK/S END...INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHWR/DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS BOTH THU AND FRI. THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AS DISCERNIBLE
FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO LATTER STAGES
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AND AND UPPER LOW SPINS WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. THAT SAID...BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BEGIN
MOVING OVERSPREAD AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASING IN DUE TIME. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FIRING MECHANISM. IN ANY
EVENT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION DURING THESE TIME
FRAMES MAINLY BASED ON MODEL/S PERSISTENCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... FOG IS LIFTING AT KELM/KRME ATTM...AND LINGERING
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST TO ARND 13Z.

THIS AFTN...AS A COLD FRNT SLOWLY NEARS FROM THE N...ISOLD-SCTD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DVLP. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS ACRS NRN PTNS OF OUR FA...SO WE DID INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSRA AT KSYR AND KRME. ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE SEEMS TOO ISOLD/UNCERTAIN AT
THIS JUNCTURE...TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.

OVERNIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE...AS THE ATMOS
STABILIZES. FOG DVLPMT...THOUGH...IS A TOUGHER CALL. UP N...MORE
CLDS SHOULD BE ARND TNT...DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
FRNT...SO WE FELT MORE CONFIDENT NOT INSERTING FOG AT KRME. AT
KELM...THOUGH...THINGS MAY WELL RADIATE ENOUGH FOR THE RE-DVLPMT
OF VLY FOG...AND WE`VE THUS INSERTED IFR FOR THAT SITE AFTER ABT 08Z.

SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING TNT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA MAY AGN PROVIDE SOME
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC OF SUCH OCCURRENCES AT
KBGM/KAVP.

WED THROUGH FRI...MOSTLY VFR...BUT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ