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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 161915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRON OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
HRRR AND ARW SHOW SOME WEAK CONV MVG OUT OF THE ERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN. MODELS PRETTY MUCH FCST DRY WX OVERNGT OTR THAN PERHAPS
A FEW EVENING SPRINKLES WITH A STRONG MID LVL DRY PUNCH. LL DECPLS
LATE AND WITH THE RAIN...ESP NORTH...SEEMS LIKE A RSNBL CHANCE FOR
FOG OVRNGT. HAVE HAD SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE MOHAWK VLY IN THIS
PTRN SO WITH THE RAIN INCLUDED THAT AREA WITH THE USUAL VLY FOG
PTRN.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
MON LOOKS TO START DRY BUT WITH A FNTL BNDRY LOOMING ACROSS NRN
NY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SLOW SWRD MVMT OF THE SFC BNDRY WITH THE PARALLEL UPR
FLOW. FNT SAGS TO THE NRN PA ZONES BY 12Z TUE AND FNLY GETS A KICK
AS AN UPR WV COMES IN FROM THE LAKES. THIS KICK WILL HELP THE FNT
CLR THE AREA BY EARLY WED AND LET A 1020MB HI OVER THE LAKES BLDS
IN.

WITH THE FNT ON MON...OPERATIONAL NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH CAPES
BETTER THAN A THSND. SREF MEAN LESS THAN HALF THAT WITH THE GFS
MINIMAL. THERE/S IS LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH SOME TYPICAL SPPED
SHEAR WITH A LTL UPR JET CORE DVLPG LATE IN THE DAY OVER PA. LATE
DAY STORMS OVER THE NEPA ZONES HAVE SOME PTNL BUT OTRW SVR THREAT
SEEMS LIMITED.

MAV GUID ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO HI FOR THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND XPCTD
PCPN SO WENT CLOSER TO THE MET GUID FOR TEMPS THRU THE PD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...TODAY/S EXTENDED MODEL SUITE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. WITH AN INVERTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEEK/S END...INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHWR/DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS
BOTH THU AND FRI. THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AS DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN
FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA.

THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO LATTER STAGES
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AND AND UPPER LOW SPINS WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. THAT SAID...BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BEGIN
MOVING OVERSPREAD AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES INCREASING IN DUE TIME. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FIRING MECHANISM. IN ANY
EVENT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC TO CHC MENTION DURING THESE TIME
FRAMES MAINLY BASED ON MODEL/S PERSISTENCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SHORT DURATION IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
RME AND SYR WHERE THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
RESIDES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS HR HOWEVER OVERALL CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW AND THUS NO MENTION WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOR NOW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG DURATION
IFR APPEARS TO BE AT ELM AND RME WHERE VISIBILITIES BELOW
ALTERNATE MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT REMAINING STIES...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LARGELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE REQUIRED AND IFR
THRESHOLDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SHWRS/ISOLATED STORMS.

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THU/FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG