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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 172333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST, A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AT 7 PM...AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER JUST PATCHY CI ADVECTING
OVERHEAD FROM UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS CI WILL CONT TO STREAM
OVERHEAD THRU THE NIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND SKY COVER WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.

AT 4 PM...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIN CI OVER THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN OTSEGO
COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SCT/BKN CI. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS TO MID 40S ON THE HILLTOPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO RISE WHILE SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FA BY MONDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PROVIDE A BETTER
MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE FAR SE FA. DURING THIS PERIOD WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA FORCING WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
OVERALL, ALL LIFTING AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS ARE WEAK AND
CONSIDERING THIS IS OCCURRING UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE JUST SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG THEREFORE INCLUDED THUNDER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM UPDATE...

SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM BUT UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULT WILL BE AN
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL START OFF TO OUR NORTH BUT
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
(40-50%) AS PERIODS OF RAIN APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN AT THIS
DISTANT VIEW. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH CAPES OF 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY COOL OFF A BIT
TOWARD THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE EURO IS CORRECT...AS THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR
LOOKS TO BE ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SWEEPING OUT EAST/EAST
BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A LOWERING SATURDAY TO 12K FT. THE THICKEST
CLOUDS WILL BE IN AVP... SW OF BGM AND ELM.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY 02Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC