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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190534
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SHWR ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
THIS HR WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN AS MAIN SFC LOW BEGINS EXITING OFF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND THE
NORTHERN TIER IN PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS BUT IN GENERAL...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
EVENING.

7 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING LGT SHWR ACTIVITY PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SULLIVAN
COUNTY THIS HR AS MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW WORKING OFF THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR
TWO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ELSEWHERE...RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES NOTED
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING IN FROM EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. ALL IN
ALL...THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
LOPRES CNTRD NEAR NYC THIS AFTN WITH A COLD FNT TRAILING BACK INTO
SRN AND CNTERL PA. THIS HAS FOCUSED SOME CONV OVER THE VERY
EXTREME PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
PLENTY OF MID AND LL CLDS AS A RESULT OF A WV ZIPPING THRU THE UPR
TROF OVER THE NERN US. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AS MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTS TO ADVECT IN FROM CANADA OVRNGT. WITH LGT NE WINDS ON THE
SFC AND MUCH STRONGER FLOW JUST ABV THE BNDRY LYR...NOT A FVRBL
SET UP FOR FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PD AS A 1025MB SFC HI BLDS INTO THE AREA UNDER A NW FLOW
ALOFT. WED LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY AND WILL BE FLWD BY A CLR AND
CHILLY NGT. MEX GUID BRINGS ELOM TO 36 WITH SOME SRNDG AREAS TO
34. HWVR...WITH FULL GREENUP AND WARM GND AND WATER BELIEVE IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORM PTCHY FROST.

HI SLIDES EAST ON FRI AS A TROF NOSES INTO THE CNTRL LAKES AND
ONTARIO. ANY PCPN SHD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BUT
THERE SHD BE A NOTABLE INCRS IN HI CLDS AND LL RH AS A SWLY FLOW
NEAR THE SFC DVLPS. TEMPS SHD CONT TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH MANY
AREAS IN NEPA AND THE VLYS PASSING 80F FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF EXHIBIT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NW FLOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER
RIDGING AND A DRYER... WARMER PATTERN. HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH THE HPC
GUIDANCE... INDICATING A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD EAST BRINGING A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK... ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THU. ADDED POTNL FOR SOME BR AT ITH
THIS MRNG GIVEN LAST OB OF 8/8 AND 9SM...AND MAY HAVE TO ADD POTNL AT
ELM. OTRW XPCT JUST FEW-SCT CU TDA. WIND L&V TNGT...BECMG NRLY
10-15 KTS BY MID/LATE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...THU THRU SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...CMG/DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE